IMF Executive Board Concludes 2016 Article IV Consultation with Romania
IMF Executive Board Concludes 2016 Article IV Consultation with Romania
Press Release No. 16/210
May 11, 2016
On May 9, 2016, the Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) concluded the Article IV consultation (1) with Romania.
The Romanian economy is on a cyclical upswing supported by strong domestic demand. Recent hikes in minimum and public wages, record low interest rates, low fuel prices, and a Value-Added Tax (VAT) reduction have boosted private consumption. A catch-up in absorption of European Union (EU) funds has contributed to an increase in investment.
Annual headline inflation turned negative in June 2015 following a sharp reduction in VAT on food items from 24 to 9 percent. However, adjusting for the VAT changes, underlying inflation was 2.4 percent (year-over-year) in March 2016 (Eurostat estimate) despite the recent fall in international commodity prices and low inflation in the euro area.
There has been welcome progress in reducing banking sector non-performing loans.
Growth is expected to reach 4.2 percent in 2016—largely due to the one-off stimulus to consumption from the recent fiscal expansion—and decelerate to 3.6 percent in 2017.
Underlying inflation is expected to continue growing and the current account deficit to widen further because of import growth.
Two main risks to the economic outlook are electoral and external uncertainties. On the domestic side, populist measures in an election year could negatively affect market confidence and undermine investment. On the external side, a deterioration in emerging market risk perception could trigger capital outflows, a depreciation of the currency, and a substantial increase in the external debt-to-GDP ratio.
Maintaining adequate reserve levels, a flexible exchange rate regime, and fiscal buffers will be key in mitigating risks. Improving Romania’s long-term growth prospects to close the gap with advanced EU countries will depend on maintaining prudent macroeconomic policies and advancing the pace of structural reforms.
Executive Board Assessment (2)
Executive Directors welcomed the significant progress in reducing vulnerabilities after the global financial crisis, notably the marked improvements in fiscal and external balances and in the resilience of the banking sector.
Directors observed, however, that there are downside risks to the economic outlook. They also noted with concern the recent procyclical fiscal relaxation, changes in financial sector legislation that could adversely affect financial stability, and the slowdown in structural reforms.
Directors underscored the importance of implementing prudent economic policies and regaining the structural reform momentum to preserve Romania’s hard-won gains and raise medium-term growth potential.
Directors emphasized the need to ensure fiscal sustainability and the credibility of the fiscal framework. In light of the large fiscal relaxation adopted last year, it is crucial that fiscal policy is anchored on a credible debt reduction path going forward.
Repealing the planned tax reductions or postponing them until offsetting measures are identified will help achieve these objectives.
Directors also underscored the importance of strengthening fiscal institutions and strictly enforcing fiscal rules and the fiscal responsibility law. They welcomed recent steps to enhance transparency in public spending, and called on the authorities to accelerate complementary reforms to strengthen the spending review unit, pass the procurement law, improve the targeting of social protection schemes, and strengthen public administration more broadly.
Directors highlighted the urgency of stepping up structural reforms to unlock Romania’s potential growth, particularly by improving the efficiency of public investment and the business climate. They called for intensified efforts to strengthen the corporate governance of state-owned enterprises—including through passage of the draft legislation in parliament—and improve the planning and utilization of EU funds.
Directors also encouraged further reforms in tax administration, focusing on large taxpayers and making tax administration more business friendly more generally. It will also be important that policies on public and minimum wages take into account fiscal space, productivity growth, and competitiveness considerations. Directors commended the authorities for the progress in fighting corruption and encouraged them to address remaining weaknesses.
Directors concurred that a tightening bias in monetary policy is appropriate given current inflation projections. They recommended that the authorities begin reducing the gap between the market and policy rates, absorb liquidity from the market, and further narrow the interest rate corridor, while continuing to enhance the effectiveness of the monetary policy framework. Maintaining adequate international reserves remains crucial in light of elevated uncertainty in global financial markets.
Directors welcomed the significant progress in strengthening the financial sector, particularly in reducing non-performing loans. Priorities going forward are to pursue predictable and market-friendly policies and ensure proper oversight. In this context, Directors cautioned that poorly targeted measures for providing debt relief to borrowers could undermine financial stability, legal predictability, and credit growth.
They called on the authorities to reconsider the recently passed measures and to put adequate safeguards in place. Sustained efforts to further deepen financial intermediation are critical to foster private investment and growth.
(1) Under Article IV of the IMF's Articles of Agreement, the IMF holds bilateral discussions with members, usually every year. A staff team visits the country, collects economic and financial information, and discusses with officials the country's economic developments and policies. On return to headquarters, the staff prepares a report, which forms the basis for discussion by the Executive Board.
(2) At the conclusion of the discussion, the Managing Director, as Chairman of the Board, summarizes the views of Executive Directors, and this summary is transmitted to the country's authorities. An explanation of any qualifiers used in summings up can be found here: http://www.imf.org/external/np/sec/misc/qualifiers.htm.
Source: IMF statement
Meritam si noi o traducere profesionista?
Adauga un comentariu
Adauga un comentariu folosind contul de Facebook
Alte stiri din categoria: Noutati FMI
The Regional Resident Representative of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in Romania and Bulgaria, Alejandro Hajdenberg, made the following statement today: "I am very pleased to announce that Jaewoo Lee has been appointed as the new mission chief for Romania and Bulgaria. He detalii
IMF Executive Board Concludes Article IV Consultation with Romania and Ex-Post Evaluation of Exceptional Access Under the 2013 Stand-By Arrangement
May 25, 2017 On May 22, 2017 the Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) concluded the Article IV consultation  detalii
Ms. Christine Lagarde, Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), made the following statement: “Today’s decision of Ukrainian authorities to nationalize PrivatBank is an important step in their efforts to safeguard financial stability. This decision was detalii
During 2007-08, house prices in several countries collapsed, marking the onset of a global financial crisis. The IMF’s Global House Price Index, a simple average of real house prices for 57 countries, is now almost back to its level before the crisis (Chart 1). Is it time to worry again detalii
- Topul bancilor dupa active in 2017
- Topul bancilor cu cele mai mici comisioane la contul curent cu card si online banking
- Topul bancilor dupa active in 2016
- Topul bancilor dupa active in 2015
- Topul bancilor dupa active in 2014
- BNR propune Parlamentului plafonarea dobanzilor la creditele bancilor intre 1,5 si 4 ori peste DAE medie, in functie de tipul creditului; in cazul IFN-urilor, plafonarea dobanzilor nu se justifica
- Legile privind plafonarea dobanzilor la credite si a datoriilor preluate de firmele de recuperare se discuta in Parlament (actualizat)
- Legea privind plafonarea dobanzilor la credite nu a fost inclusa pe ordinea de zi a comisiilor din Camera Deputatilor
- Senatorul Zamfir, despre plafonarea dobanzilor la credite: numai bou-i consecvent!
- Parlamentul dezbate marti legile de plafonare a dobanzilor la credite si a datoriilor cesionate de banci firmelor de recuperare (actualizat)
- Creditele noi acordate de banci au crescut in februarie, dupa cinci luni consecutive de scadere
- Numarul restantierilor din Biroul de Credit urca la cel mai ridicat nivel din ultimele sase luni
- Cate credite noi in euro au acordat bancile in 2017
- Statisticile creditelor acordate de banci populatiei (decembrie 2017)
- Statisticile creditelor acordate de banci firmelor (decembrie 2017)
- Ordonanta de Guvern nr. 21/1992 privind protectia consumatorilor (versiune actualizata)
- Regulament BNR privind institutiile emitente de moneda electronica
- Ordonanta de Urgenta (OUG) nr. 50 din 2010 privind contractele de credit pentru consumatori, actualizata
- Noul Cod Civil
- Legea 677 din 2001 privind protectia datelor personale
- Economistii Bancii Transilvania estimeaza decelerarea PIB-ului de la 7% in 2017 la 4,2% in 2018
- Cresterea economica este nesustenabila, avertizeaza economistii Bancii Transilvania
- Estimarile economice din Romania sunt modeste, in pofida conditiilor financiare bune (studiu GfK)
- National Bank of Romania could leave unchanged the key rate in 2017
- Poland: EU funds - key factor for growth next year
- Alpha Bank isi inchide sucursalele si aplicatia de online banking la ora 14 si le deschide abia luni, la 8
- OTP Bank isi anunta clientii ca trebuie sa-si actualizeze datele personale pana in 5 decembrie, altfel banca le va bloca conturile si cardurile
- Banca Transilvania inventeaza POS-uri in forma de cutii de donatii
- Programul agentiilor Raiffeisen Bank in perioada Sarbatorilor de Pasti
- CEC Bank isi informeaza clientii ca serviciile de internet banking si mobile banking nu vor functiona de vineri seara pana duminica seara
- Intrebari frecvente despre Biroul de Credit
- Lista bancilor si IFN-urilor care-si raporteaza clientii la Biroul de Credit
- Cum pot fi sters din Biroul de Credit?
- Termenul de depunere a declaratiei unice a fost prelungit pana la 31 iulie
- Romanii au cumparat titluri de stat Centenar in valoare de 786 milioane lei
- Populatia poate cumpara titluri de stat cu dobanda de 5%, de la Trezorerii sau Posta
- Titlurile de stat pentru populatie prin Programul Tezaur se vor distribui si prin Posta Romana
- Ministerul Finantelor amana cu trei luni sanctiunile pentru nedotarea magazinelor cu aparate de marcat electronice
- Clauza abuziva intr-un contract de credit al BRD
- BRD a fost obligata de judecatori sa explice cum au avut loc fraudele din 2008-2011
- BRD contesta in justitie o decizie a ANAF
- Curtea Constitutionala respinge contestatiile Credit Europe Bank la legea darii in plata
- Procesul dintre Lucian Isar si Banca Comerciala Feroviara
- Enel vrea sa-si treaca clientii pe piata libera
- Oamenii reclama ca nu pot cumpara titluri de stat Centenar la Posta prin transfer bancar sau card, ci doar cu numerar
- Vodafone si Orange, amendate de ANCOM pentru ca si-au suprataxat clientii pentru convorbirile roaming in strainatate
- Ministerul Finantelor anunta ca introduce Declaratia Unica pentru persoanele fizice care realizeaza venituri din activitati economice sau alte categorii de venituri
- Ministerul Finantelor a imprumutat 2 miliarde euro de pe pietele internationale
- Numarul fimelor active din Romania, conform statisticilor Registrului Comertului
- Evolutia istorica a cresterii anuale a Produsului Intern Brut (PIB), conform datelor Institutului National de Statistica (INS)
- Evolutia istorica a valorii Produsului Intern Brut (PIB), conform datelor Institutului National de Statistica (INS)
- Transferurile de bani ale romanilor din strainatate au ajuns la 2,1 miliarde euro anul trecut, conform statisticilor Eurostat
- Salariul mediu net si brut lunar pe economie - evolutie istorica intre in anii 1991 - 2016, conform datelor Institutului de Statistica (INS)
- ECB: Insights into the digital transformation of the retail payments ecosystem
- ECB introductory statement on Governing Council decisions
- Speech by Mario Draghi, President of the ECB: Sustaining openness in a dynamic global economy
- Deciziile de politica monetara ale BCE
- Mario Draghi, President of the ECB: Introductory statement to the press conference (with Q&A)
- EBA launches 2018 EU-wide transparency exercise
- EBA issues first binding mediation decision between the SRB and the NBR
- Asset repricing, cyber-attacks and Brexit are key risks for EU financial markets, shows ESA report
- EBA publishes its Roadmap on FinTech
- EBA launches 2018 EU-wide stress test exercise
- Peste 80% din depozitele bancare sunt garantate
- Depozitele bancare nu intra in campania electorala
- FGDB explica modul de aplicare a procedurii de recapitalizare interna a unei banci cu depozitele negarantate ale clientilor (bail-in)
- Valoarea depozitelor garantate de FGDB a crescut cu 50 miliarde lei in ultimul an, la 221 miliarde lei in total
- FGDB aminteste ca toate conturile si depozitele din bancile romanesti sunt garantate in limita a 100.000 de euro
- IMF statement of the 2018 Article IV Mission to Romania
- Jaewoo Lee, new IMF mission chief for Romania and Bulgaria
- IMF concludes article IV consultation with Romania
- IMF statement on the stability of the banking system in Ukraine
- Global House Prices: Time to Worry Again?
- BERD dezvaluie cat a platit pe actiunile Piraeus Bank
- ING Bank si BERD finanteaza parcul logistic CTPark Bucharest
- EBRD hails Moldova banking breakthrough
- Banca Transilvania and EBRD become majority shareholders of Victoriabank in Moldova
- BERD devine actionar Agricover Holding
- Federal Reserve urca dobanda la 2,25%
- Federal Reserve decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 1-1/2 to 1-3/4 percent
- Federal Reserve majoreaza dobanda de referinta pentru dolar la 1,5% - 1,75%
- Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement
- A Challenging Decade and a Question for the Future (speech by Janet Yellen, The Fed chair)
- Romania implements SME Initiative: EUR 580 m for Romanian businesses
- European Investment Bank (EIB) is lending EUR 20 million to Agricover Credit IFN
- Cardul de masa BT poate fi inregistrat in BT Pay, pentru platile cu telefonul
- BCR a lansat noua platforma de online banking, George
- BBVA ofera open banking
- Horum Bank, banca poloneza bazata pe tehnologia blockchain
- Nicio zi la ING fara o problema la Home Bank
- Obligatiunile Bancii Transilvania se tranzactioneaza la Bursa de Valori Bucuresti
- Obligatiunile Good Pople SA (FRU21) au debutat pe piata AeRO
- BVB avertizeaza doua firme ca nu si-au respectat obligatiile de raportare
- Raiffeisen Centrobank (RCB) a lansat produse de investitii tip warrant la BVB
- BVB a initiat procesul de fuziune cu Sibex
- Infringements: Commission refers Greece, Ireland and Romania to the Court of Justice for not implementing anti-money laundering rules
- Council of the European Union statement on Bulgaria path towards ERM II participation
- Romania, pe ultimul loc in Europa la digitalizare
- Platile in euro vor avea aceleasi comisioane ca cele in lei, a decis Comisia Europeana
- Comisia Europeana prezinta un plan de actiune pentru tehnologiile financiare (FinTech)
Buna ziua. Lucrez in Danemarca pe un contract pe o perioada nedeterminata, cu salariul de 2150€ ... detalii
pensie pilonul II
Buna ziua. M-ar interesa daca figurez la dvs cu pilonul II de ... detalii
Da, puteti primi euro si intr-un cont in lei la CEC Bank, nu trebuie sa aveti un cont in ... detalii
Pot sa primesc o suma in euro intr un cont de lei deschis la Cec Bank
Multumesc ... detalii
Plăti prin mobilpay
Nu trimite codul prin sms pentru a face plata prin ... detalii