IMF Executive Board Concludes 2016 Article IV Consultation with Romania
IMF Executive Board Concludes 2016 Article IV Consultation with Romania
Press Release No. 16/210
May 11, 2016
On May 9, 2016, the Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) concluded the Article IV consultation (1) with Romania.
The Romanian economy is on a cyclical upswing supported by strong domestic demand. Recent hikes in minimum and public wages, record low interest rates, low fuel prices, and a Value-Added Tax (VAT) reduction have boosted private consumption. A catch-up in absorption of European Union (EU) funds has contributed to an increase in investment.
Annual headline inflation turned negative in June 2015 following a sharp reduction in VAT on food items from 24 to 9 percent. However, adjusting for the VAT changes, underlying inflation was 2.4 percent (year-over-year) in March 2016 (Eurostat estimate) despite the recent fall in international commodity prices and low inflation in the euro area.
There has been welcome progress in reducing banking sector non-performing loans.
Growth is expected to reach 4.2 percent in 2016—largely due to the one-off stimulus to consumption from the recent fiscal expansion—and decelerate to 3.6 percent in 2017.
Underlying inflation is expected to continue growing and the current account deficit to widen further because of import growth.
Two main risks to the economic outlook are electoral and external uncertainties. On the domestic side, populist measures in an election year could negatively affect market confidence and undermine investment. On the external side, a deterioration in emerging market risk perception could trigger capital outflows, a depreciation of the currency, and a substantial increase in the external debt-to-GDP ratio.
Maintaining adequate reserve levels, a flexible exchange rate regime, and fiscal buffers will be key in mitigating risks. Improving Romania’s long-term growth prospects to close the gap with advanced EU countries will depend on maintaining prudent macroeconomic policies and advancing the pace of structural reforms.
Executive Board Assessment (2)
Executive Directors welcomed the significant progress in reducing vulnerabilities after the global financial crisis, notably the marked improvements in fiscal and external balances and in the resilience of the banking sector.
Directors observed, however, that there are downside risks to the economic outlook. They also noted with concern the recent procyclical fiscal relaxation, changes in financial sector legislation that could adversely affect financial stability, and the slowdown in structural reforms.
Directors underscored the importance of implementing prudent economic policies and regaining the structural reform momentum to preserve Romania’s hard-won gains and raise medium-term growth potential.
Directors emphasized the need to ensure fiscal sustainability and the credibility of the fiscal framework. In light of the large fiscal relaxation adopted last year, it is crucial that fiscal policy is anchored on a credible debt reduction path going forward.
Repealing the planned tax reductions or postponing them until offsetting measures are identified will help achieve these objectives.
Directors also underscored the importance of strengthening fiscal institutions and strictly enforcing fiscal rules and the fiscal responsibility law. They welcomed recent steps to enhance transparency in public spending, and called on the authorities to accelerate complementary reforms to strengthen the spending review unit, pass the procurement law, improve the targeting of social protection schemes, and strengthen public administration more broadly.
Directors highlighted the urgency of stepping up structural reforms to unlock Romania’s potential growth, particularly by improving the efficiency of public investment and the business climate. They called for intensified efforts to strengthen the corporate governance of state-owned enterprises—including through passage of the draft legislation in parliament—and improve the planning and utilization of EU funds.
Directors also encouraged further reforms in tax administration, focusing on large taxpayers and making tax administration more business friendly more generally. It will also be important that policies on public and minimum wages take into account fiscal space, productivity growth, and competitiveness considerations. Directors commended the authorities for the progress in fighting corruption and encouraged them to address remaining weaknesses.
Directors concurred that a tightening bias in monetary policy is appropriate given current inflation projections. They recommended that the authorities begin reducing the gap between the market and policy rates, absorb liquidity from the market, and further narrow the interest rate corridor, while continuing to enhance the effectiveness of the monetary policy framework. Maintaining adequate international reserves remains crucial in light of elevated uncertainty in global financial markets.
Directors welcomed the significant progress in strengthening the financial sector, particularly in reducing non-performing loans. Priorities going forward are to pursue predictable and market-friendly policies and ensure proper oversight. In this context, Directors cautioned that poorly targeted measures for providing debt relief to borrowers could undermine financial stability, legal predictability, and credit growth.
They called on the authorities to reconsider the recently passed measures and to put adequate safeguards in place. Sustained efforts to further deepen financial intermediation are critical to foster private investment and growth.
(1) Under Article IV of the IMF's Articles of Agreement, the IMF holds bilateral discussions with members, usually every year. A staff team visits the country, collects economic and financial information, and discusses with officials the country's economic developments and policies. On return to headquarters, the staff prepares a report, which forms the basis for discussion by the Executive Board.
(2) At the conclusion of the discussion, the Managing Director, as Chairman of the Board, summarizes the views of Executive Directors, and this summary is transmitted to the country's authorities. An explanation of any qualifiers used in summings up can be found here: http://www.imf.org/external/np/sec/misc/qualifiers.htm.
Source: IMF statement
Meritam si noi o traducere profesionista?
Adauga un comentariu
Adauga un comentariu folosind contul de Facebook
Alte stiri din categoria: Noutati FMI
Ms. Christine Lagarde, Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), made the following statement: “Today’s decision of Ukrainian authorities to nationalize PrivatBank is an important step in their efforts to safeguard financial stability. This decision was detalii
During 2007-08, house prices in several countries collapsed, marking the onset of a global financial crisis. The IMF’s Global House Price Index, a simple average of real house prices for 57 countries, is now almost back to its level before the crisis (Chart 1). Is it time to worry again detalii
FMI: Raport de asistenta tehnica - Imbunatatirea administrarii riscului de conformare pe care il prezinta marii contribuabili
Această lucrare de asistență tehnică despre România a fost realizată de o echipă de experți ai Fondului Monetar Internațional. Ea se bazează pe informațiile disponibile la
data finalizării sale, în luna mai 2016. Acest raport se referă la o vizită detalii
IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde Calls for Broad-based Policy Effort to Reinvigorate Growth (press release): Ms. Christine Lagarde, Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), issued the following statement today at the conclusion of the Group of detalii
- Topul bancilor dupa active in 2016
- Topul bancilor dupa active in 2015
- Topul bancilor dupa active in 2014
- Cota de piata a bancilor dupa active la finalul anului 2013, conform datelor BNR
- Topul bancilor cu cele mai mici comisioane la internet banking
- IMF concludes article IV consultation with Romania
- IMF statement on the stability of the banking system in Ukraine
- Global House Prices: Time to Worry Again?
- FMI: Raport de asistenta tehnica - Imbunatatirea administrarii riscului de conformare pe care il prezinta marii contribuabili
- IMF Director Christine Lagarde Calls for Broad-based Policy Effort to Reinvigorate Growth
- BCR: Program de lucru cu publicul, de Pasti
- Programul Raiffeisen Bank cu ocazia sarbatorilor de Pasti
- Cardurile CEC Bank ar putea functiona cu intreruperi in aceasta seara
- Programul BCR in 24 ianuarie
- Programul BCR de sarbatori
- Depozitele bancare nu intra in campania electorala
- FGDB explica modul de aplicare a procedurii de recapitalizare interna a unei banci cu depozitele negarantate ale clientilor (bail-in)
- Valoarea depozitelor garantate de FGDB a crescut cu 50 miliarde lei in ultimul an, la 221 miliarde lei in total
- FGDB aminteste ca toate conturile si depozitele din bancile romanesti sunt garantate in limita a 100.000 de euro
- EBA response to the EC Consultation Document on Fintech: a more competitive and innovative European Financial Sector
- EBA consults on Guidelines on security measures for operational and security risks under the PSD2
- Other Systemically Important Institutions (O-SIIs)
- EBA updated Risk Dashboard confirms that elevated NPLs and low profitability are the main challenges for the EU banking sector
- EBA paves the way for open and secure electronic payments for consumers under the PSD2
- Deciziile de politica monetara ale BCE
- Mario Draghi, President of the ECB: Introductory statement to the press conference (with Q&A)
- Mario Draghi: Security through unity - making integration work for Europe
- Mario Draghi, President of the ECB - Introductory statement to the press conference (with Q&A)
- ECB: Account of the monetary policy meeting
- Janet Yellen - Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the Congress
- Federal Reserve majoreaza din nou dobanda
- Federal Reserve raised the target range for the federal funds rate to 3/4 to 1 percent
- Janet Yellen: From Adding Accommodation to Scaling It Back
- Testimony by Chair Yellen on semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the Congress
- Life satisfaction: the pursuit of happiness - EBRD study
- EBRD is launching a new Green Economy Financing Facility in Romania
- EBRD selects a company to provide a visual analytics platform
- EBRD partners with Credit Europe Bank to expand access to finance for Romanian businesses
- EBRD voices backing for nationalisation of Ukraine PrivatBank
- Estimarile economice din Romania sunt modeste, in pofida conditiilor financiare bune (studiu GfK)
- National Bank of Romania could leave unchanged the key rate in 2017
- Poland: EU funds - key factor for growth next year
- BNR nu va majora dobanda pana la jumatatea anului 2017, estimeaza Garanti Bank
- PIB-ul Romaniei a crescut cu 4,3% in primul trimestru, dar economistii avertizeaza ca nu este sustenabil
- Romania implements SME Initiative: EUR 580 m for Romanian businesses
- European Investment Bank (EIB) is lending EUR 20 million to Agricover Credit IFN
- Obligatiunile Good Pople SA (FRU21) au debutat pe piata AeRO
- BVB avertizeaza doua firme ca nu si-au respectat obligatiile de raportare
- Raiffeisen Centrobank (RCB) a lansat produse de investitii tip warrant la BVB
- BVB a initiat procesul de fuziune cu Sibex
- Norme metodologice de aplicare a prevederilor Legii nr. 151/2015 privind procedura insolventei persoanelor fizice
- Legea 151 din 2015 privind procedura insolventei persoanelor fizice
- Bancile sunt obligate sa comunice fiscului lista clientilor care deschid sau inchid conturi
- Normele metodologice pentru aplicarea Ordonantei de urgenta a Guvernului nr. 193/2002 privind introducerea sistemelor moderne de plata
- Ordinul BNR nr. 11/2015 privind amortizorul aferent institutiilor de credit autorizate in Romania si identificate de Banca Nationala a Romaniei ca fiind alte institutii de importanta sistemica (O-SII)
- Raiffeisen Bank pierde un proces cu un client care a cerut darea in plata a creditului
- Decizia Curtii de Apel Bucuresti privind amenda primita de Raiffeisen Bank de la ANPC pentru majorarea dobanzii la creditele restructurate
- Decizia Curtii de Apel Bucuresti privind clauzele abuzive din contractele de credit ale Raiffeisen Bank
- Decizia Curtii de Apel Bucuresti de suspendare a deciziei Curtii de Conturi in cazul BCR Banca pentru Locuinte
- Decizia Curtii de Apel Bucuresti nr.2068/2016 in procesul bancilor pentru locuinte
- Dobanzile la credite au scazut in aprilie, dupa trei luni de crestere
- Creditele noi de consum acordate de banci sunt de doua ori mai mari decat creditele pentru locuinte
- Statisticile pietei cardurilor in primul trimestru din 2017
- Numarul creditelor acordate de IFN-uri s-a dublat
- Bancile dau mai multe credite noi firmelor decat populatiei
- Fondul Suveran de Dezvoltare si Investitii (FSDI) urmeaza sa fie infiintat de Guvern
- Programul de guvernare 2017-2020
- Salariul de baza minim brut garantat in plata, majorat la 1.450 lei lunar
- Salariul de baza minim brut garantat in plata in 2017, stabilt de viitorul Guvern
- Fonduri europene de 373 milioane euro destinate primariilor pentru infrastructura de termoficare si transport a energiei electrice si gazelor
- Transferurile de bani ale romanilor din strainatate au ajuns la 2,1 miliarde euro anul trecut, conform statisticilor Eurostat
- Salariul mediu net si brut lunar pe economie in anii 1991 - 2016, conform datelor Institutului de Statistica
- Ultimele statistici privind creditele Prima Casa: crestere de 20% fata de anul trecut
- Rata inflatiei - statistici anuale conform datelor INS
cheap car insurance ... detalii
full coverage car insurance ... detalii
deschidere cont alocatie
Buna ziua.M-ar interesa si pe mine cum trebuie procedat ca sa deschid un cont sa primesc alocatia ... detalii
O luati la hard discount, pensii (descoperit automat besten in piata:) doar prin Bancpost, brodezi ... detalii
Nici usturoi nu a mancat, nici gura nu i-a mirosit
Si nu este asa jupane? Te deranjeaza adevarul ca te-au prins astia de la BNR cu olita sub pat? De ... detalii