Before the crisis, during the euphoria of the economy, everyone was possessed by an overflowing optimism, and the competition was not a problem because almost everyone managed quite easily, but in times of crisis and limited growth, entrepreneurs should adopt a new kind of optimism to go on. rnrnBut it is a new kind of optimism, which requires radical change of mentality: hazard awareness and identification of opportunities, so you can still be better than others. rnrn”Before the crisis everything was so simple. For example, to do a real estate investment that in two years brings a double return. Naturally this kind of optimism is gone, but now we should have a new form of optimism: to identify hazards and finding opportunities, ” said Wolfgang Schoiswohl (photo), Vice-President Corporate Banking at BCR, in a meeting organized to present a project to promote entrepreneurship and entrepreneurial culture in Romania, “Champions in Business 2011”. rnrnThe new type of optimism requires the ability to make predictions and to make arrangements to have a plan B for backup, in case of necessity, or even a plan C, he added. rnrnOne billion euros for European projects rnrnBCR has financed this year the SME sector with 300 million euros for projects of European funds and other international institutions such as EBRD or EIB. rnrnIn total this year, BCR will provide loans for European projects worth one billion euros related to contracts signed so far. rnrnIn the first eight months of the year, loans granted by BCR for SMEs has exceeded one billion lei, up 10% over the previous year. rnrnBCR has noticed an improvement in the situation of SMEs in this year, after expectations of economic recovery in 2009 and 2010 have not been confirmed. rnrn”One thing is certain, consider Schoiswohl. In the next years we’ll have economic growth, but much more limited than in the pre-crisis period. rnrnBut even so, it is important for entrepreneurs to identify opportunities, such as expansion into new markets, business growth, increase service quality, the expansion in neighboring countries. ” rnrnThe secret of success: to be better than the other and identify opportunities rnrnOn the other hand, in the case of companies that have grown too much and gained too much ballast, “fat”, so they are not effective enough, it’s time to cut costs. A good example of this is Energy Efficiency Finance Facility, a program supported by EBRD, by which BCR will provide SME loans worth 20 million euros to reduce energy consumption, making the companies more competitive. rnrn”Important for a company is to look at opportunities and how to position so they are better than others, both local and foreign competitors. Because one thing is sure: the business world becomes increasingly globalized. Even though now many local businesses do not face outside competition, in the future should we expect a growing external competition, “says Schoiswohl. rnrnHe finds it difficult to identify which sectors of the economy is better than another, because it always depends on the entrepreneur’s idea, the company’s position on the market. “We have examples of companies that have thrived even in this difficult business environment in industries that on average are down.” rnrnWithout initial capital you can not develop a business rnrnThe current difficult economic environment prevents also the banks to predict future business opportunities, so it is important for companies with growth ambitions or the newly established ones to have a certain initial capital. rnrn”I think it’s not only the banks responsability to ask for an entrepreneur to come up with the family silver to secure a loan, it is also the role of other entities, such as investment funds, which must develop more in order to support a blocked business due to lack of necessary funding, “says Schoiswohl. rnrn”We must not rely solely on the classic combination that we saw in recent years: the mixture of capital available to an entrepreneur with financing from the bank. If there is no initial capital to dispose of an entrepreneur, it is clear that it can not start, can not develop. It is important however to note that not only the bank hase the responsability to provide financing for a business, but also the other operators such as investment funds, so they can find new solutions to meet this deficiency, “adds Schoiswohl. rnrnMoreover, BCR has developed its own opportunities fund (company good.bee), there is the possibility to provide equity type “junior”, which is a combination of capital and financing, generally at higher rates and some specific features investment funds. rnrn”So there is a range of options available that come from banks or should be developed by banks and other companies or investment funds. Certainly there is much room for development here in future, if we compare Romania with other developed countries. ” rnrnThe company’s development potential is more important than the balance rnrnFor the bank is also very important in the analysis of a client not only the “hard” part, meaning a company’s financial situation, balance situation or guarantees it has, but also to assess the “soft” part, ie identifying innovative character of business, its qualifications, qualities that differentiate it from competitors. rnrn”It is also important to identify a business with potential for future growth based on European funding, which can be sustained by BCR due to its international experience of other branches of Erste group,” says Schoiswohl. rnrnWhat lessons should be learned from the crisis rnrn”If we look at what happened over the last three years, that changed economic climate, it is clear that at some point the economy grew too fast before the crisis, which resulted in an unhealthy growth of income and real estate prices”, says Schoiswohl. rnrnLooking into the future, we see a number of advantages for entrepreneurs, who can learn from what has happened in recent years so as not to repeat the same mistakes, he adds. rnrn”What we have seen from BCR experience is that many entrepreneurs previously only looked at growth opportunities, so that was a surprise to many that the situation may get worse from day to day. Therefore, entrepreneurs need a new skill, not just to drive that forward. You have to be realistic and you must be able to manage a business also and difficult situations, to go from plan A of increase to plan B of decrease and if that does not work to have on hand even a plan C. ” rnrn”It is important that in this new climate to have an appropriate balance between the identification of new business opportunities, investment, growth into new markets and developing new products on one part and keeping the costs under control on the other,” adds Schoiswohl. rnrn”For BCR, SMEs are a key area, so we are very proud to say that as we hold bank’s leading position in Romania, we have an overexposure in local businesses, given that 40% of Romanian SMEs are customers BCR . rnrnWhen it comes to banks to support SMEs, the question often arises whether they are doing enough, if they give companies enough funding or too little. In terms of BCR, in the first eight months of the year we have already given over 1 billion lei new loans for SMEs, “says Schoiswohl. rnrn”In this days of many negative news from Romania and abroad, there is a risk that just listening to them to have adversely affect for us, so one of the benefits of the initiative to promote local business champions is to see the glass half full, we can benefit from the optimism of successful local entrepreneurs, which may help the economy, “said Schoiswohl.
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The neutral nominal rate in Romania has been falling since the start of inflation targeting in 2005. The Taylor Rule clearly shows that interest rates peaked in 2022 and have been on a clear downward path ever since.Furthermore, the model estimates a long-term neutral nominal rate of around 3.9%, which is the equivalent of approx. 1.4% real.Using a more sophisticated model (i.e. New York FED’S HLW model), the real neutral interest rate in Romania is estimated currently at around 1.5% (1.7% 2023 average) and the historical mean at 1.2%.This implies a neutral nominal rate between 4.00% and 4.50%. In the past decade, the NBR real effective rate was below the neutral rate and only over the past year climbed above the neutral mark.Source: Erste Bank
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