Adrian Vasilescu, the adviser to of the National Bank of Romania (BNR) governor Mugur Isarescu, stated that the governor had anticipated the crisis as early as 2000, when he told the then president of the European Commission (EC), Romano Prodi, that seven good years and, then, seven poor years were to follow. rnrn“I believe the governor anticipated the crisis in 2000, during his discussion with Prodi, when he was asked why he insisted on our joining the EU as of January 1, 2007, although we were not ready. I do not mean to imply that he foresaw this, but it was a glimmer of intuition, nonetheless, as he replied: ‘I insist on it, sir, because seven is a biblical figure.’ ‘How is that?’ Prodi asked him. And the governor told him it was the story of the seven fat cows and the seven skinny cows. There will be seven good years, and then seven poor years,” Vasilescu stated.
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The neutral nominal rate in Romania has been falling since the start of inflation targeting in 2005. The Taylor Rule clearly shows that interest rates peaked in 2022 and have been on a clear downward path ever since.Furthermore, the model estimates a long-term neutral nominal rate of around 3.9%, which is the equivalent of approx. 1.4% real.Using a more sophisticated model (i.e. New York FED’S HLW model), the real neutral interest rate in Romania is estimated currently at around 1.5% (1.7% 2023 average) and the historical mean at 1.2%.This implies a neutral nominal rate between 4.00% and 4.50%. In the past decade, the NBR real effective rate was below the neutral rate and only over the past year climbed above the neutral mark.Source: Erste Bank
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