UniCredit announces that today the rating agency Moodys changed the long-term deposit and senior debt ratings by a single notch to Aa3 from Aa2 and the banks financial strength rating (BFSR) to C+ from B-. rnrnThe outlook for the banks deposit and debt ratings is stable from negative. rnrnAt the same time all the ratings assigned to UniCredits two main subsidiaries, HVB and Bank Austria were affirmed with a stable outlook. rnrnMoodys explained its rating decision with the deterioration of UniCredits profitability during 2008, the difficult conditions faced by UniCredits Markets and Investment Banking (MIB) division, and the delay in the expected improvement of the asset quality indicators following the acquisition of Capitalia due to the current market environment. rnrnHowever, Moodys noted positively the planned capital strengthening measures for 6.6 billion announced by the bank and added that the UniCredit group has relatively limited direct exposure to areas such as structured credit, leveraged buyouts, conduits and monolines amongst others. The rating agency said that possible writedowns from such activities were likely to be manageable without impacting the banks ratings, particularly if the planned measures to strengthen capital adequacy are successfully completed. rnrnrnThe full text of Moodys press release is available on the website of the company.
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The neutral nominal rate in Romania has been falling since the start of inflation targeting in 2005. The Taylor Rule clearly shows that interest rates peaked in 2022 and have been on a clear downward path ever since.Furthermore, the model estimates a long-term neutral nominal rate of around 3.9%, which is the equivalent of approx. 1.4% real.Using a more sophisticated model (i.e. New York FED’S HLW model), the real neutral interest rate in Romania is estimated currently at around 1.5% (1.7% 2023 average) and the historical mean at 1.2%.This implies a neutral nominal rate between 4.00% and 4.50%. In the past decade, the NBR real effective rate was below the neutral rate and only over the past year climbed above the neutral mark.Source: Erste Bank
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