The sale of Raiffeisenbank (Bulgaria) EAD to KBC Bank, agreed upon in November 2021, was successfully closed today, said the bank in a statement.
The sale has a positive impact of c. 75 basis points on RBI’s Group CET1 ratio, based on the agreed selling price of EUR 1,009 million, closing equity of EUR 588 million, and the deconsolidation of EUR 3.1 billion RWA.
As all conditions for the completion of the transaction, including all necessary regulatory approvals, were met in June 2022, the deconsolidation of Raiffeisenbank (Bulgaria) EAD is effective 30 June 2022. Accordingly, the transaction will be reflected in RBI’s second quarter financial results. Subject to ECB approval, the CET1 impact will also be recognized in RBI’s Q2 capital ratios.
The additional capital resulting from the sale further strengthens RBI’s solid capital position and will be reallocated to support growth in RBI’s key markets.
The neutral nominal rate in Romania has been falling since the start of inflation targeting in 2005. The Taylor Rule clearly shows that interest rates peaked in 2022 and have been on a clear downward path ever since.Furthermore, the model estimates a long-term neutral nominal rate of around 3.9%, which is the equivalent of approx. 1.4% real.Using a more sophisticated model (i.e. New York FED’S HLW model), the real neutral interest rate in Romania is estimated currently at around 1.5% (1.7% 2023 average) and the historical mean at 1.2%.This implies a neutral nominal rate between 4.00% and 4.50%. In the past decade, the NBR real effective rate was below the neutral rate and only over the past year climbed above the neutral mark.Source: Erste Bank
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