Romania’s national currency the leu dipped to the lowest level of the past two months against the single European currency, to a reference exchange rate announced by the central bank (BNR) at 3.9249 lei per euro and dealers suspect the lender’s intervention on the market after the leu stood at 3.96.rnrnThe leu last reached this level on October 7, when BNR posted a reference rate of 3.9277 lei per euro. BNR established a reference rate of 3.9151 lei per euro in the previous session. rnrnBNR is most likely to have intervened on the market as the other currencies in the region continued to fall, said Ciprian Mihai, chief of the Volksbank Romania treasury. rnrnThe national currency lost ground to 3.92 versus the euro this morning and then fell to a maximum level of 3.96. The leu started to gain ground back at noon and at 1:30 p.m., banks were buying an euro with 3.9280 lei and selling it for 3.94 lei. rnrnIn the region, the Polish zloty decreased constantly from 3.9180 to 3.9933 versus the euro, while the Hungarian forint increased from 267.70 to 265.30. rnrnOn international markets, the U.S. dollar waved around 1.3370 and 1.35 versus the euro and at 1:30 p.m. Romania’s hour, the euro was traded for 1.3473 dollars. rnrnBNR’s reference rate indicates a 0.9 percent climb of the leu versus the U.S. dollar, to 2.9129 lei per dollar. rnrnInterbank interests for overnight deposits stood at 10-11 percent per year, close to the monetary policy rate of 10.25 percent per year. rn
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The neutral nominal rate in Romania has been falling since the start of inflation targeting in 2005. The Taylor Rule clearly shows that interest rates peaked in 2022 and have been on a clear downward path ever since.Furthermore, the model estimates a long-term neutral nominal rate of around 3.9%, which is the equivalent of approx. 1.4% real.Using a more sophisticated model (i.e. New York FED’S HLW model), the real neutral interest rate in Romania is estimated currently at around 1.5% (1.7% 2023 average) and the historical mean at 1.2%.This implies a neutral nominal rate between 4.00% and 4.50%. In the past decade, the NBR real effective rate was below the neutral rate and only over the past year climbed above the neutral mark.Source: Erste Bank
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