Monetary indicators – June 2015 (BNR press release):
At end-June 2015, broad money (M3) amounted to RON 260,982.7 million, up 1.2 percent (4.3 percent in real terms) month on month. In year-on-year comparison, broad money rose 8.8 percent (10.6 percent in real terms).
At end-June 2015, non-government loans granted by credit institutions climbed by 1.1 percent (4.1 percent in real terms) from May 2015 to RON 215,106.2 million. RON-denominated loans increased by 3.9 percent (7.1 percent in real terms), whereas foreign currency-denominated loans fell by 1.4 percent when expressed in RON and by 2.1 percent when expressed in EUR. At end-June 2015, non-government loans decreased by 0.1 percent (up 1.4 percent in real terms) year on year, on the back of the 13.2 percent increase in RON-denominated loans (15.0 percent in real terms) and the 9.8 percent decline in foreign currency-denominated loans expressed in RON (when expressed in EUR, forex loans dropped 11.6 percent).
Government credit1 contracted by 1.6 percent month on month to RON 87,786.0 million. At end- June 2015, government credit increased by 9.1 percent (10.8 percent in real terms) from the same year-ago period.
Deposits of non-government resident customers went up 1.3 percent month on month to RON 230,966.9 million in June 2015.
RON-denominated household deposits added 0.4 percent to RON 88,035.4 million. At end-June 2015, household deposits in domestic currency rose by 8.2 percent (9.9 percent in real terms) against end-June 2014.
RON-denominated corporate deposits (non-financial corporations and non-monetary financial institutions) increased by 2.8 percent to RON 63,879.2 million. At end-June 2015, RON-denominated corporate deposits climbed by 9.1 percent (10.8 percent in real terms) year on year.
Forex-denominated deposits of resident households and corporates (non-financial corporations and non-monetary financial institutions) went up 1.2 percent to RON 79,052.3 million when expressed in domestic currency (when expressed in EUR, forex deposits increased by 0.4 percent to EUR 17,671.2 million). In year-on-year comparison, residents’ forex deposits expressed in RON advanced 6.6 percent (when expressed in EUR, residents’ forex deposits rose by 4.5 percent); household forex deposits grew by 8.1 percent when expressed in domestic currency (when expressed in EUR, household forex deposits expanded by 6.0 percent) and forex deposits of legal entities (non-financial corporations and non-monetary financial institutions) went up 3.5 percent when expressed in RON (when expressed in EUR, forex deposits of resident legal entities inched up 1.5 percent).
Note: In the monetary balance sheets of monetary financial institutions, the accrued interest receivable/payable related to financial assets and liabilities is recorded under remaining assets/remaining liabilities.
(1) includes credit to general government (central government, local government and social security funds) in amount of RON 9,917.0 million and debt securities issued by these institutional sectors running at RON 77,869.0 million (outstanding as at end-June 2015).
The neutral nominal rate in Romania has been falling since the start of inflation targeting in 2005. The Taylor Rule clearly shows that interest rates peaked in 2022 and have been on a clear downward path ever since.Furthermore, the model estimates a long-term neutral nominal rate of around 3.9%, which is the equivalent of approx. 1.4% real.Using a more sophisticated model (i.e. New York FED’S HLW model), the real neutral interest rate in Romania is estimated currently at around 1.5% (1.7% 2023 average) and the historical mean at 1.2%.This implies a neutral nominal rate between 4.00% and 4.50%. In the past decade, the NBR real effective rate was below the neutral rate and only over the past year climbed above the neutral mark.Source: Erste Bank
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