Romanian balance of payments and external debt – July 2015 (Romanian National Bank statement):
In January – July 2015p, the balance-of-payments current account posted a deficit of EUR 347 million as compared with EUR 997 million in the same year-ago period, amid the narrowing of the primary income deficit (by EUR 595 million), together with the widening of the services and secondary income surpluses (by EUR 310 million and EUR 276 million, respectively).
Non-residents’ direct investment in Romania (estimates) totalled EUR 2,084 million, of which equity (including estimated net reinvestment of earnings) amounted to EUR 1,228 million and intercompany lending to EUR 856 million (net).
Long-term external debt at end-July 2015 stood at EUR 70,494 million (77.8 percent of total external debt), down 6.9 percent from end-2014.
Short-term external debt at end-July 2015 amounted to EUR 20,096 million (22.2 percent of total external debt), up 8.2 percent from end-2014.
In the period under review, the total external debt declined by EUR 3,712 million.
The neutral nominal rate in Romania has been falling since the start of inflation targeting in 2005. The Taylor Rule clearly shows that interest rates peaked in 2022 and have been on a clear downward path ever since.Furthermore, the model estimates a long-term neutral nominal rate of around 3.9%, which is the equivalent of approx. 1.4% real.Using a more sophisticated model (i.e. New York FED’S HLW model), the real neutral interest rate in Romania is estimated currently at around 1.5% (1.7% 2023 average) and the historical mean at 1.2%.This implies a neutral nominal rate between 4.00% and 4.50%. In the past decade, the NBR real effective rate was below the neutral rate and only over the past year climbed above the neutral mark.Source: Erste Bank
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