Romania envisages entering a special cooperation agreement with the Banking Union by the end of next year and joining the euro area in 2019, according to Romanian central bank governor, Mugur Isarescu.
He presented the expected Romanian macroeconomic outcomes in 2014:
– so far, slower-than-expected economic growth
– current forecasts average around 2.5%, as compared to the more optimistic forecasts (around 3%) at the beginning of the year
– the downward revision was triggered by poor investment activity, in both public and private sectors, while the available data indicate that the agricultural output will be as good as last year
– Average annual HICP inflation stood at 1.3% in September, level compliant with the Maastricht inflation criterion
– The fiscal deficit will remain below the Maastricht Treaty limit of 3% of GDP
– The current account deficit stood below 1% of GDP in 2014 H1, very close to the 2013 figure and well below the MIP scoreboard benchmark (4%)
– Given its macroeconomic fundamentals, Romania has the potential to grow sustainably in the medium run, yet actual outcomes depend on regional, European and global developments
The neutral nominal rate in Romania has been falling since the start of inflation targeting in 2005. The Taylor Rule clearly shows that interest rates peaked in 2022 and have been on a clear downward path ever since.Furthermore, the model estimates a long-term neutral nominal rate of around 3.9%, which is the equivalent of approx. 1.4% real.Using a more sophisticated model (i.e. New York FED’S HLW model), the real neutral interest rate in Romania is estimated currently at around 1.5% (1.7% 2023 average) and the historical mean at 1.2%.This implies a neutral nominal rate between 4.00% and 4.50%. In the past decade, the NBR real effective rate was below the neutral rate and only over the past year climbed above the neutral mark.Source: Erste Bank
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