The widening of Romania’s current account deficit accelerated 7.5 percent year-on-year in the first four months to 4.842 billion euros on worrying trade gap, the central bank announced today. rnrnLast year’s deficit stood at 4.504 billion euros. In the first four months this year the commercial deficit, the main source of the external disequilibrium, widened 14.05 percent and the balance of incomes widened 7.15 percent from 1.371 billion euros last year to 1.469 billion euros this year. rnrnThe balance of services raised surplus 11.19 percent in the first four months of the year to 308 million euros versus 277 million euros in the same period last year. Services in transportation recorded an 83 million euro surplus in the first four months against an 84 million euro deficit in the same period last year. However, services in tourism saw a wider deficit from 14 million euros last year to 20 million euros this year. rnrnMoney inflows from current transfers which include money Romanians working abroad send home, totaled 2.876 billion euros in the first four months of the year, a 35.7 percent increase versus the similar period of the previous year. rnrnMoney outflows grew 51.6 percent from 668 million euros in the first four months last year to 1.013 billion euros this year. Therefore, the surplus of current transfers taken into account when calculating the external balance of payments climbed 28.4 percent to 1.863 billion euros. rn
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The neutral nominal rate in Romania has been falling since the start of inflation targeting in 2005. The Taylor Rule clearly shows that interest rates peaked in 2022 and have been on a clear downward path ever since.Furthermore, the model estimates a long-term neutral nominal rate of around 3.9%, which is the equivalent of approx. 1.4% real.Using a more sophisticated model (i.e. New York FED’S HLW model), the real neutral interest rate in Romania is estimated currently at around 1.5% (1.7% 2023 average) and the historical mean at 1.2%.This implies a neutral nominal rate between 4.00% and 4.50%. In the past decade, the NBR real effective rate was below the neutral rate and only over the past year climbed above the neutral mark.Source: Erste Bank
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