Raiffeisen International Bank-Holding AG is holding its third Capital Markets Day today. More than 130 participants primarily analysts and investors from the most important financial centres in the world have come to St. Petersburg to hear about the latest trends at Raiffeisen International. By staging the Capital Markets Day in Russia, the largest market in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE), the company chose a CIS venue for the second time in a row, following Kiev in 2006. rnrnOutlook and profit confirmed rnrnThe Managing Board of Raiffeisen International confirmed the outlook despite the difficult market environment. “We are particularly proud of the fact that we can present an unchanged outlook despite the global financial crisis, thanks to our business model”, said Herbert Stepic, Chairman of the Managing Board of Raiffeisen International. “For the 2008 business year we are still targeting a consolidated profit of about 1 billion. This anti-cyclical performance is due, among other factors, to a very strong risk management culture, a broad risk diversification and the excellent reputation of our brand”, he added. rnrnRaiffeisen International aims to grow the balance sheet total by at least 20 per cent per year in the period to 2010. The cost/income ratio should come to about 56 per cent, and Raiffeisen Internationals target risk/earnings ratio is about 15 per cent. For 2010, the company has set itself the goal of achieving a return on equity (ROE) before tax of more than 25 per cent. rnrn”We have a very solid capitalisation with a core capital ratio (Tier 1, incl. market and operational risk) of 8.2 per cent. By adding the profits of the first half of 2008, it would even amount to more than 9 per cent. Considering this, as well our traditionally good access to funding mainly due to our high level of customer deposits and with RZB as a strong core shareholder we are very confident we will succeed in the persisting unfriendly environment”, said Martin Grüll, CFO of Raiffeisen International. rnrnManaging Board meets the financial community rnrnThe Capital Markets Day is held by Raiffeisen International every two years in the autumn. It enables a continuous flow of information and an exchange of opinions between the Managing Board of Raiffeisen International and the financial community. The goal of Capital Markets Day is to provide investors with a picture of CEE a region in which Raiffeisen International has been active for over 20 years already. The purpose is not only to convey an understanding of CEE through facts and figures but above all through contact with management. For example, the financial community can see for itself firsthand the result of the successful integration of Impexbank into Raiffeisen which took place in 2007. Measured in terms of balance sheet total, Raiffeisen International is the number two in Ukraine and in third place in Belarus, making it very well represented in the CIS. A new subsidiary in Kazakhstan will be open for business in 2009 which will strengthen this leading role even more. rnrnThe entire Managing Board of Raiffeisen International is present in St. Petersburg. Managing Board members from the three regions Central Europe (Hungary), Southeastern Europe (Romania) and the CIS (Russia) will complete the picture with their presentations. rnrnIn addition, the analysts from Raiffeisen Research will present their well-known CEE Banking Sector Report, providing a comprehensive overview of the regional bank market. rn
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The neutral nominal rate in Romania has been falling since the start of inflation targeting in 2005. The Taylor Rule clearly shows that interest rates peaked in 2022 and have been on a clear downward path ever since.Furthermore, the model estimates a long-term neutral nominal rate of around 3.9%, which is the equivalent of approx. 1.4% real.Using a more sophisticated model (i.e. New York FED’S HLW model), the real neutral interest rate in Romania is estimated currently at around 1.5% (1.7% 2023 average) and the historical mean at 1.2%.This implies a neutral nominal rate between 4.00% and 4.50%. In the past decade, the NBR real effective rate was below the neutral rate and only over the past year climbed above the neutral mark.Source: Erste Bank
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