Bancherul - BANCI / ENGLISH / EBRD revised down growth forecast for Romania in 2012 by 2.7 percentage points, from 3.8% to 1.1%

EBRD revised down growth forecast for Romania in 2012 by 2.7 percentage points, from 3.8% to 1.1% because of high exposure to Greece economy. The bank also warned about the negative effects of the crisis in Greece through the banks relationships.

For 2011, the EBRD forecast changed down 0.4 percentage points to 1.5%.

For Hungary, the forecast was changed from 2.8% to 0.5%, for Bulgaria from 3.7% to 2.3%, for Poland from 3.5% to 2.3%, for Slovakia from 2% to 0.5% and for Estonia from 4.1% to 2.6%.

EBRD estimates that the average economic growth in Central and Eastern Europe will be 1.7% in 2012, compared to 3.4% the initial estimate, and for countries in South-Eastern Europe the forecast was revised from 3, 7% to 1.6%.

"Until recently, Romania’s economy was on track to record modest growth in 2011 and a much more robust growth in 2012. However, the slowdown in the eurozone is already having a significant dampening effect on Romania’s exports to that region (although exports outside the eurozone are holding up well), and further weakening is possible in the coming months. The Greek crisis has a dampening effect mainly through cross-border banking relationships. Continued IMF support provides an important buffer", said EBRD.