The Polish central bank (NBP) monetary policy council (RPP) decided at its meeting today to cut the key policy rate by 25 basis points to 5.75%, said Danske Bank. rnrnOur and the consensus expectation was for an unchanged rate.rnrnNevertheless, today decision to cut the key policy rate can only be seen as a minor surprise.rnrnThe main reasons behind the NBP rate cut today are the expected slowdown in growth on the back of the global credit crisis and that inflation will begin to ease significantly in the coming months and close in on the NBP inflation target.rnrnIn this light it was all about timing for the NBP. It has now begun an easing of monetary policies and the NBP could present an additional rate cut in the coming months, maybe as soon as its next meeting at the end of December. However, the main risk to this view is a weakening of the Polish zloty, which could cause NBP tornstay cautious.
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The neutral nominal rate in Romania has been falling since the start of inflation targeting in 2005. The Taylor Rule clearly shows that interest rates peaked in 2022 and have been on a clear downward path ever since.Furthermore, the model estimates a long-term neutral nominal rate of around 3.9%, which is the equivalent of approx. 1.4% real.Using a more sophisticated model (i.e. New York FED’S HLW model), the real neutral interest rate in Romania is estimated currently at around 1.5% (1.7% 2023 average) and the historical mean at 1.2%.This implies a neutral nominal rate between 4.00% and 4.50%. In the past decade, the NBR real effective rate was below the neutral rate and only over the past year climbed above the neutral mark.Source: Erste Bank
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