On December 31st 2011, National Bank of Romania’s foreign exchange reserves stood at EUR 33,193 million, compared to EUR 31,744 million on November 30th 2011, said the bank in a press release.rnrnDuring the month, the following flows have taken place:rnrn1. EUR 1,994 million inflows, representing inflows into the European Commission’s account, inflows into the Ministry of Public Finances’ accounts (including the third tranche within the agreement with the World Bank, in amount of EUR 400 million), changes in the foreign exchange reserve requirements of the credit institutions, income from the management of foreign exchange reserves a.s.o.;rnThe appreciation of the U.S. dollar, Japanese yen and pound sterling against the euro on the global foreign exchange market was another factor that provided support to the increase in the value of the international reserves.rnrn2. EUR 545 million outflows, representing interest and principal payments on foreign currency public debt, changes in the foreign exchange reserve requirements of the credit institutions a.s.o. .rnrnThe gold stock has held steady at 103.7 tonnes. However, following the change in the international price of gold, its value amounted to EUR 4,058 million.rnrnThe international reserves of Romania (foreign currencies and gold) on December 31st 2011 stood at EUR 37,251 million, compared to EUR 36,020 million on November 30th 2011.rnrnDuring the month of January 2012, the payments due on public and publicly guaranteed foreign currency denominated debt amount to EUR 142 million. rn
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The neutral nominal rate in Romania has been falling since the start of inflation targeting in 2005. The Taylor Rule clearly shows that interest rates peaked in 2022 and have been on a clear downward path ever since.Furthermore, the model estimates a long-term neutral nominal rate of around 3.9%, which is the equivalent of approx. 1.4% real.Using a more sophisticated model (i.e. New York FED’S HLW model), the real neutral interest rate in Romania is estimated currently at around 1.5% (1.7% 2023 average) and the historical mean at 1.2%.This implies a neutral nominal rate between 4.00% and 4.50%. In the past decade, the NBR real effective rate was below the neutral rate and only over the past year climbed above the neutral mark.Source: Erste Bank
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