National Bank of Romania (NBR) Board decisions on monetary policy
NBR Board decisions on monetary policy
In its meeting of 4 April 2023, the Board of the National Bank of Romania decided:
• to keep the monetary policy rate at 7.00 percent per annum;
• to leave unchanged the lending (Lombard) facility rate at 8.00 percent per annum and the deposit facility rate at 6.00 percent per annum;
• to keep the existing levels of minimum reserve requirement ratios on both leu- and foreign currency-denominated liabilities of credit institutions.
The annual inflation rate went down to 15.52 percent in February 2023, from 16.37 percent in December 2022, relatively in line with forecasts. The decrease was mainly driven by the sizeable drop in the dynamics of fuel and electricity prices, under the impact of significant base effects and the change made to the energy price capping and compensation scheme starting 1 January 2023.
At the same time, the annual adjusted CORE2 inflation slowed its rise somewhat more visibly than anticipated, to reach 15.0 percent in February, from 14.6 percent in December 2022, amid disinflationary base effects and falling prices of some commodities, especially agri-food items, as well as the downward adjustment of short-term inflation expectations.
However, notable opposite influences continued to come from the gradual pass-through into consumer prices of increased costs of materials and wages, as well as from higher profit margins, in the context of the resilience of consumer demand, but also from the rise in the prices of some imported consumer goods.
The annual inflation rate calculated based on the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP – inflation indicator for EU Member States) went down to 13.4 percent in February 2023 from 14.1 percent in December 2022. The average annual CPI inflation rate and the average HICP inflation rate continued however to go up, reaching 14.9 percent and 13.0 percent respectively in February 2023 from 13.8 percent and 12.0 percent respectively in December 2022, but remained below the levels prevailing in the region and the Baltic countries.
Economic growth slowed down only mildly in 2022 Q4, to 1.0 percent from 1.2 percent in the previous three months (quarterly change), thus exceeding expectations yet again, which makes it likely for excess aggregate demand to pick up again over this period, contrary to expectations.
In annual terms, economic growth stepped up to 4.6 percent in 2022 Q4, from 3.8 percent in the prior quarter, with the main contribution, for the second quarter in a row, from gross fixed capital formation, followed at a short distance by the contribution from household consumption.
The impact of net exports remained contractionary, but decreased significantly against Q3, as the particularly large deceleration in the annual dynamics of the import volume exceeded that in the annual dynamics of the export volume of goods and services. Against this background, the annual increase in the trade deficit slowed down markedly, while that in the current account deficit decelerated by two thirds to a two-year low, inter alia following the improvement in the evolution of the secondary income balance, on account of inflows of EU funds to the current account.
The latest data and analyses point to a more subdued slowdown in economic growth in 2023 Q1 than previously anticipated, implying however a pronounced deceleration versus the same year-earlier period, amid a base effect.
Thus, the annual growth rate of retail sales, including motor vehicle and motorcycle trade, continued to pick up in January 2023, while that of services to households posted a decline. At the same time, industrial output saw a wider contraction in annual terms, whereas the volume of construction works recorded a considerably slower increase compared to the same year-earlier period.
The annual changes in both exports and imports of goods and services saw large declines in the first month of 2023, with the former remaining however relatively higher, probably owing, inter alia, to the improved terms of trade. Consequently, trade deficit and current account deficit contracted significantly versus the same year-earlier period.
The growth in the number of employees in the economy continued to lose pace in December 2022-January 2023, while the ILO unemployment rate posted only a very slight decline in January-February 2023, after its advance to 5.7 percent in 2022 Q4. At the same time, in 2023 Q1 the labour shortage reported by companies saw a re-intensification of the downward trend visible since 2022 Q3, whereas employment intentions fluctuated significantly during the first three months of the current year, mainly owing to frequent changes in expectations in a sector.
The main interbank money market rates remained on a downward path in February-March, amid the excess liquidity in the banking system. However, the downward adjustment slowed and came to a halt towards the end of the period. At the same time, yields on government securities posted increases in February, which were fully corrected in March – in line with developments in advanced economies and in the region –, against the backdrop of successive revisions in investor expectations on major central banks’ prospective monetary policy stance, as well as of the turmoil created by the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank in the US and by the situation of Credit Suisse.
The leu further exhibited a strengthening trend versus the euro during this period, reflecting the high relative attractiveness of investments in domestic currency. In the closing days of March, the EUR/RON rose gradually, returning to the vicinity of the values prevailing in 2022 H1.
The annual growth rate of credit to the private sector continued to decelerate in the first two months of 2023, albeit more moderately, reaching 10.6 percent in February from 12.1 percent in December 2022, amid the slower decline in the dynamics of the leu-denominated component, alongside the quasi-halt in the uptrend of the high dynamics of foreign currency loans. The share of leu-denominated loans in credit to the private sector continued, however, to fall, standing at 68.3 percent in February 2023 from 68.8 percent in December 2022.
According to current assessments, the annual inflation rate will probably fall at a faster pace over the following months, in line with the latest medium-term forecast (February 2023), under the influence of sizeable base effects and the downward corrections of some commodity prices, as well as amid the changes made to energy price capping and compensation schemes.
Uncertainties are, however, associated with the presumed impact of the new setup of energy price capping and compensation schemes, while the balance of supply-side risks is slightly tilted to the upside at the current juncture, given inter alia the vegetable shortage in Europe and the oil output cuts announced by OPEC countries.
At the same time, the war in Ukraine and the related sanctions continue to generate significant uncertainties and risks to the outlook for economic activity, hence to medium-term inflation developments, to which add those stemming from the turmoil in the banking systems in the US and Switzerland. All this could have adverse effects by affecting the economies of developed countries and the risk perception towards Central and Eastern Europe, with an impact on financing costs.
Furthermore, the absorption of EU funds, especially those under the Next Generation EU programme, is conditional on fulfilling strict milestones and targets for implementing the projects. However, it is essential for carrying out the necessary structural reforms, energy transition included, as well as for counterbalancing, at least in part, the contractionary impact of supply-side shocks, compounded by the war in Ukraine and by the tightening of economic and financial conditions worldwide.
Major uncertainties and risks are associated with the fiscal policy stance as well, given, on one hand, the public deficit target set for 2023 in order to continue budget consolidation amid the excessive deficit procedure and the significant increase in financing costs and, on the other hand, the packages of support measures implemented or extended this year, in a challenging economic and social environment domestically and globally, with potential adverse implications for budget parameters.
Particularly relevant are the Fed’s and the ECB’s monetary policy decisions, which render capital flows unclear, as well as the behaviour of central banks in the region.
In the meeting held today, 4 April 2023, based on the currently available data and assessments, as well as in light of the very elevated uncertainty, the NBR Board decided to keep the monetary policy rate at 7.00 percent per annum.
Moreover, it decided to leave unchanged the lending (Lombard) facility rate at 8.00 percent per annum and the deposit facility rate at 6.00 percent per annum. Furthermore, the NBR Board decided to keep the existing levels of minimum reserve requirement ratios on both leu- and foreign currency-denominated liabilities of credit institutions.
The NBR Board decisions aim to bring the annual inflation rate back in line with the 2.5 percent ±1 percentage point flat target on a lasting basis, inter alia by anchoring inflation expectations over the medium term, in a manner conducive to achieving sustainable economic growth. At the current juncture, the balanced macroeconomic policy mix and the implementation of structural reforms, also by using EU funds to foster the growth potential over the long term are of the essence in preserving a stable macroeconomic framework and strengthening the capacity of the Romanian economy to withstand adverse developments.
The NBR closely monitors developments in the domestic and international environment and will continue to use the tools at its disposal to achieve the fundamental objective of price stability in the medium term.
The account (minutes) of discussions underlying the adoption of the monetary policy decision during today’s meeting will be posted on the NBR’s website on 18 April 2023 at 3:00 p.m.
In line with the announced calendar, the next monetary policy meeting of the NBR Board will be held on 10 May 2023.
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- Risks may arise with some cross-border electronic invoice and card services
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- Sale of Raiffeisenbank (Bulgaria) EAD to KBC Bank closed
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Vezi toate stirile
Criza COVID-19
- In majoritatea unitatilor BRD se poate intra fara certificat verde
- La BCR se poate intra fara certificat verde
- Firmele, obligate sa dea zile libere parintilor care stau cu copiii in timpul pandemiei de coronavirus
- CEC Bank: accesul in banca se face fara certificat verde
- Cum se amana ratele la creditele Garanti BBVA
Topuri Banci
- Topul bancilor dupa active si cota de piata in perioada 2022-2015
- Topul bancilor cu cele mai mici dobanzi la creditele de nevoi personale
- Topul bancilor la active in 2019
- Topul celor mai mari banci din Romania dupa valoarea activelor in 2018
- Topul bancilor dupa active in 2017
Asociatia Romana a Bancilor (ARB)
- Băncile din România nu au majorat comisioanele aferente operațiunilor în numerar
- Concurs de educatie financiara pentru elevi, cu premii in bani
- Creditele acordate de banci au crescut cu 14% in 2022
- Romanii stiu educatie financiara de nota 7
- Gradul de incluziune financiara in Romania a ajuns la aproape 70%
ROBOR
- ROBOR: ce este, cum se calculeaza, ce il influenteaza, explicat de Asociatia Pietelor Financiare
- ROBOR a scazut la 1,59%, dupa ce BNR a redus dobanda la 1,25%
- Dobanzile variabile la creditele noi in lei nu scad, pentru ca IRCC ramane aproape neschimbat, la 2,4%, desi ROBOR s-a micsorat cu un punct, la 2,2%
- IRCC, indicele de dobanda pentru creditele in lei ale persoanelor fizice, a scazut la 1,75%, dar nu va avea efecte imediate pe piata creditarii
- Istoricul ROBOR la 3 luni, in perioada 01.08.1995 - 31.12.2019
Taxa bancara
- Normele metodologice pentru aplicarea taxei bancare, publicate de Ministerul Finantelor
- Noul ROBOR se va aplica automat la creditele noi si prin refinantare la cele in derulare
- Taxa bancara ar putea fi redusa de la 1,2% la 0,4% la bancile mari si 0,2% la cele mici, insa bancherii avertizeaza ca indiferent de nivelul acesteia, intermedierea financiara va scadea iar dobanzile vor creste
- Raiffeisen anunta ca activitatea bancii a incetinit substantial din cauza taxei bancare; strategia va fi reevaluata, nu vor mai fi acordate credite cu dobanzi mici
- Tariceanu anunta un acord de principiu privind taxa bancara: ROBOR-ul ar putea fi inlocuit cu marja de dobanda a bancilor
Statistici BNR
- Deficitul contului curent, aproape 20 miliarde euro după primele nouă luni
- Deficitul contului curent, aproape 18 miliarde euro după primele opt luni
- Deficitul contului curent, peste 9 miliarde euro pe primele cinci luni
- Deficitul contului curent, 6,6 miliarde euro după prima treime a anului
- Deficitul contului curent pe T1, aproape 4 miliarde euro
Legislatie
- Legea nr. 311/2015 privind schemele de garantare a depozitelor şi Fondul de garantare a depozitelor bancare
- Rambursarea anticipata a unui credit, conform OUG 50/2010
- OUG nr.21 din 1992 privind protectia consumatorului, actualizata
- Legea nr. 190 din 1999 privind creditul ipotecar pentru investiții imobiliare
- Reguli privind stabilirea ratelor de referinţă ROBID şi ROBOR
Lege plafonare dobanzi credite
- Care este dobanda maxima la un credit IFN?
- BNR propune Parlamentului plafonarea dobanzilor la creditele bancilor intre 1,5 si 4 ori peste DAE medie, in functie de tipul creditului; in cazul IFN-urilor, plafonarea dobanzilor nu se justifica
- Legile privind plafonarea dobanzilor la credite si a datoriilor preluate de firmele de recuperare se discuta in Parlament (actualizat)
- Legea privind plafonarea dobanzilor la credite nu a fost inclusa pe ordinea de zi a comisiilor din Camera Deputatilor
- Senatorul Zamfir, despre plafonarea dobanzilor la credite: numai bou-i consecvent!
Anunturi banci
- Cererea unui ajutor in bani poate fi o inselaciune
- Cate reclamatii primeste Intesa Sanpaolo Bank si cum le gestioneaza
- Platile instant, posibile la 13 banci
- Aplicatia CEC app va functiona doar pe telefoane cu Android minim 8 sau iOS minim 12
- Bancile comunica automat cu ANAF situatia popririlor
Analize economice
- Inflația anuală, sub pragul de 5% în ianuarie 2025
- Datoria publică a României în context european
- Inflația anuală, peste pragul de 5% în 2024
- Deficit bugetar de -7,12% din PIB, după 11 luni din 2024
- România, „lanterna roșie†a cheltuielilor pentru cercetare-dezvoltare în UE
Ministerul Finantelor
- -8,65% din PIB, deficit bugetar pe anul 2024
- Datoria publică, 51,4% din PIB la mijlocul anului
- Deficit bugetar de 3,6% din PIB după prima jumătate a anului
- Deficit bugetar de 3,4% din PIB după primele cinci luni ale anului
- Deficit bugetar îngrijorător după prima treime a anului
Biroul de Credit
- FUNDAMENTAREA LEGALITATII PRELUCRARII DATELOR PERSONALE IN SISTEMUL BIROULUI DE CREDIT
- BCR: prelucrarea datelor personale la Biroul de Credit
- Care banci si IFN-uri raporteaza clientii la Biroul de Credit
- Ce trebuie sa stim despre Biroul de Credit
- Care este procedura BCR de raportare a clientilor la Biroul de Credit
Procese
- ANPC pierde un proces cu Intesa si ARB privind modul de calcul al ratelor la credite
- Un client Credius obtine in justitie anularea creditului, din cauza dobanzii prea mari
- Hotararea judecatoriei prin care Aedificium, fosta Raiffeisen Banca pentru Locuinte, si statul sunt obligati sa achite unui client prima de stat
- Decizia Curtii de Apel Bucuresti in procesul dintre Raiffeisen Banca pentru Locuinte si Curtea de Conturi
- Vodafone, obligata de judecatori sa despagubeasca un abonat caruia a refuzat sa-i repare un telefon stricat sau sa-i dea banii inapoi (decizia instantei)
Stiri economice
- Deficit comercial de 33,4 miliarde euro in 2024
- România, sistematic în topul deficitelor publice la nivel european
- Datoria publică, 54,3% din PIB la finele lunii noiembrie 2024
- Ultimii și la productivitatea muncii în agricultură
- Datoria publică, 54% din PIB la finele lunii octombrie 2024
Statistici
- România, pe locul trei în UE la creșterea costului muncii în T2 2024
- Cheltuielile cu pensiile - România, pe locul 19 în UE ca pondere în PIB
- Dobanda din Cehia a crescut cu 7 puncte intr-un singur an
- Care este valoarea salariului minim brut si net pe economie in 2024?
- Cat va fi salariul brut si net in Romania in 2024, 2025, 2026 si 2027, conform prognozei oficiale
FNGCIMM
- Programul IMM Invest continua si in 2021
- Garantiile de stat pentru credite acordate de FNGCIMM au crescut cu 185% in 2020
- Programul IMM invest se prelungeste pana in 30 iunie 2021
- Firmele pot obtine credite bancare garantate si subventionate de stat, pe baza facturilor (factoring), prin programul IMM Factor
- Programul IMM Leasing va fi operational in perioada urmatoare, anunta FNGCIMM
Calculator de credite
- ROBOR la 3 luni a scazut cu aproape un punct, dupa masurile luate de BNR; cu cat se reduce rata la credite?
- In ce mall din sectorul 4 pot face o simulare pentru o refinantare?
Noutati BCE
- Acord intre BCE si BNR pentru supravegherea bancilor
- Banca Centrala Europeana (BCE) explica de ce a majorat dobanda la 2%
- BCE creste dobanda la 2%, dupa ce inflatia a ajuns la 10%
- Dobânda pe termen lung a continuat să scadă in septembrie 2022. Ecartul față de Polonia și Cehia, redus semnificativ
- Rata dobanzii pe termen lung pentru Romania, in crestere la 2,96%
Noutati EBA
- Bancile romanesti detin cele mai multe titluri de stat din Europa
- Guidelines on legislative and non-legislative moratoria on loan repayments applied in the light of the COVID-19 crisis
- The EBA reactivates its Guidelines on legislative and non-legislative moratoria
- EBA publishes 2018 EU-wide stress test results
- EBA launches 2018 EU-wide transparency exercise
Noutati FGDB
- Banii din banci sunt garantati, anunta FGDB
- Depozitele bancare garantate de FGDB au crescut cu 13 miliarde lei
- Depozitele bancare garantate de FGDB reprezinta doua treimi din totalul depozitelor din bancile romanesti
- Peste 80% din depozitele bancare sunt garantate
- Depozitele bancare nu intra in campania electorala
CSALB
- Sistemul bancar romanesc este deosebit de bine pregatit pentru orice fel de socuri
- La CSALB poti castiga un litigiu cu banca pe care l-ai pierde in instanta
- Negocierile dintre banci si clienti la CSALB, in crestere cu 30%
- Sondaj: dobanda fixa la credite, considerata mai buna decat cea variabila, desi este mai mare
- CSALB: Romanii cu credite caută soluții pentru reducerea ratelor. Cum raspund bancile
First Bank
- Ce trebuie sa faca cei care au asigurare la credit emisa de Euroins
- First Bank este reprezentanta Eurobank in Romania: ce se intampla cu creditele Bancpost?
- Clientii First Bank pot face plati prin Google Pay
- First Bank anunta rezultatele financiare din prima jumatate a anului 2021
- First Bank are o noua aplicatie de mobile banking
Noutati FMI
- FMI: criza COVID-19 se transforma in criza economica si financiara in 2020, suntem pregatiti cu 1 trilion (o mie de miliarde) de dolari, pentru a ajuta tarile in dificultate; prioritatea sunt ajutoarele financiare pentru familiile si firmele vulnerabile
- FMI cere BNR sa intareasca politica monetara iar Guvernului sa modifice legea pensiilor
- FMI: majorarea salariilor din sectorul public si legea pensiilor ar trebui reevaluate
- IMF statement of the 2018 Article IV Mission to Romania
- Jaewoo Lee, new IMF mission chief for Romania and Bulgaria
Noutati BERD
- Creditele neperformante (npl) - statistici BERD
- BERD este ingrijorata de investigatia autoritatilor din Republica Moldova la Victoria Bank, subsidiara Bancii Transilvania
- BERD dezvaluie cat a platit pe actiunile Piraeus Bank
- ING Bank si BERD finanteaza parcul logistic CTPark Bucharest
- EBRD hails Moldova banking breakthrough
Noutati Federal Reserve
- Federal Reserve anunta noi masuri extinse pentru combaterea crizei COVID-19, care produce pagube "imense" in Statele Unite si in lume
- Federal Reserve urca dobanda la 2,25%
- Federal Reserve decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 1-1/2 to 1-3/4 percent
- Federal Reserve majoreaza dobanda de referinta pentru dolar la 1,5% - 1,75%
- Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement
Noutati BEI
- BEI a redus cu 31% sprijinul acordat Romaniei in 2018
- Romania implements SME Initiative: EUR 580 m for Romanian businesses
- European Investment Bank (EIB) is lending EUR 20 million to Agricover Credit IFN
Mobile banking
- Comisioanele BRD pentru MyBRD Mobile, MyBRD Net, My BRD SMS
- Termeni si conditii contractuale ale serviciului You BRD
- Recomandari de securitate ale BRD pentru utilizatorii de internet/mobile banking
- CEC Bank - Ghid utilizare token sub forma de card bancar
- Cinci banci permit platile cu telefonul mobil prin Google Pay
Noutati Comisia Europeana
- Avertismentul Comitetului European pentru risc sistemic (CERS) privind vulnerabilitățile din sistemul financiar al Uniunii
- Cele mai mici preturi din Europa sunt in Romania
- State aid: Commission refers Romania to Court for failure to recover illegal aid worth up to €92 million
- Comisia Europeana publica raportul privind progresele inregistrate de Romania in cadrul mecanismului de cooperare si de verificare (MCV)
- Infringements: Commission refers Greece, Ireland and Romania to the Court of Justice for not implementing anti-money laundering rules
Noutati BVB
- BET AeRO, primul indice pentru piata AeRO, la BVB
- Laptaria cu Caimac s-a listat pe piata AeRO a BVB
- Banca Transilvania plateste un dividend brut pe actiune de 0,17 lei din profitul pe 2018
- Obligatiunile Bancii Transilvania se tranzactioneaza la Bursa de Valori Bucuresti
- Obligatiunile Good Pople SA (FRU21) au debutat pe piata AeRO
Institutul National de Statistica
- Producția industrială, la cota -1,8% după 11 luni din 2024
- Deficitul contului curent, peste 26 miliarde euro în noiembrie 2024
- Comerțul cu amănuntul - în creștere cu 8% pe primele 10 luni
- Deficitul balanței comerciale la 9 luni, cu 15% mai mare față de aceeași perioadă a anului trecut
- Producția industrială, în scădere semnificativă
Informatii utile asigurari
- Data de la care FGA face plati pentru asigurarile RCA Euroins: 17 mai 2023
- Asigurarea împotriva dezastrelor, valabilă și in caz de faliment
- Asiguratii nu au nevoie de documente de confirmare a cutremurului
- Cum functioneaza o asigurare de viata Metropolitan pentru un credit la Banca Transilvania?
- Care sunt documente necesare pentru dosarul de dauna la Cardif?
ING Bank
- La ING se vor putea face plati instant din decembrie 2022
- Cum evitam tentativele de frauda online?
- Clientii ING Bank trebuie sa-si actualizeze aplicatia Home Bank pana in 20 martie
- Obligatiunile Rockcastle, cel mai mare proprietar de centre comerciale din Europa Centrala si de Est, intermediata de ING Bank
- ING Bank transforma departamentul de responsabilitate sociala intr-unul de sustenabilitate