On May 31st 2016, the National Bank of Romania’s foreign exchange reserves stood at EUR 32,672 million, compared to EUR 31,471 million on April 30th 2016, said the national bank in a statement.
During the month, the following flows have taken place:
– EUR 1,451 million inflows representing changes in the foreign exchange reserve requirements of the credit institutions, inflows into the Ministry of Public Finances’ accounts (including the amount resulted from the Ministry of Public Finances issuance of eurobonds with a nominal value of EUR 1,000 million), inflows into the European Commission’s account a.s.o.;
– EUR 250 million outflows representing changes in the foreign exchange reserve requirements of the credit institutions, interest and principal payments on foreign currency public debt a.s.o..
The gold stock remained unchanged at 103.7 tones. However, following the change in the international price of gold, its value amounted to EUR 3,624 million.
The international reserves of Romania (foreign currencies and gold) on May 31st 2016 stood at EUR 36,296 million, compared to EUR 35,208 million on April 30th 2016.
During the months of January – May 2015, the payments due on public and publicly guaranteed foreign currency denominated debt, direct or guaranteed by the Ministry of Public Finances, totalized EUR 2,474 million and the ones due until the end of the year amount to approximately EUR 2,921 million. Regarding the former ones, the payments due in the month of June 2016 on public and publicly guaranteed foreign currency denominated debt, direct or guaranteed by the Ministry of Public Finances, represents the maximum monthly payment for this year and totalizes approximately EUR 1,811 million.
The neutral nominal rate in Romania has been falling since the start of inflation targeting in 2005. The Taylor Rule clearly shows that interest rates peaked in 2022 and have been on a clear downward path ever since.Furthermore, the model estimates a long-term neutral nominal rate of around 3.9%, which is the equivalent of approx. 1.4% real.Using a more sophisticated model (i.e. New York FED’S HLW model), the real neutral interest rate in Romania is estimated currently at around 1.5% (1.7% 2023 average) and the historical mean at 1.2%.This implies a neutral nominal rate between 4.00% and 4.50%. In the past decade, the NBR real effective rate was below the neutral rate and only over the past year climbed above the neutral mark.Source: Erste Bank
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