National Bank of Romania press release:
Deposits of non-government resident customers edged up 0.1 percent month on month to RON 202,165.2 million in June 2013.
RON-denominated household deposits added 0.9 percent to RON 77,060.8 million. At end-June 2013, household deposits in domestic currency increased by 2.0 percent (down 3.2 percent in real terms) against end-June 2012.
RON-denominated corporate deposits (non-financial corporations and non-monetary financial institutions) declined by 1.1 percent to RON 52,008.8 million. At end-June 2013, RON-denominated corporate deposits rose by 3.2 percent (down 2.0 percent in real terms) year on year.
Forex-denominated deposits of resident households and corporates (non-financial corporations and non-monetary financial institutions) went up 0.2 percent to RON 73,095.6 million when expressed in domestic currency (when expressed in EUR, forex deposits decreased by 1.6 percent to EUR 16,393.6 million).
In year-on-year comparison, residents’ forex deposits expressed in RON advanced 12.2 percent (when expressed in EUR, residents’ forex deposits climbed by 12.0 percent); household forex deposits grew by 12.4 percent when expressed in domestic currency (when expressed in EUR, household forex deposits stood 12.2 percent higher) and forex deposits of corporates (non-financial corporations and non-monetary financial institutions) rose by 11.8 percent when expressed in RON (when expressed in EUR, forex deposits of resident corporates expanded by 11.5 percent).
The neutral nominal rate in Romania has been falling since the start of inflation targeting in 2005. The Taylor Rule clearly shows that interest rates peaked in 2022 and have been on a clear downward path ever since.Furthermore, the model estimates a long-term neutral nominal rate of around 3.9%, which is the equivalent of approx. 1.4% real.Using a more sophisticated model (i.e. New York FED’S HLW model), the real neutral interest rate in Romania is estimated currently at around 1.5% (1.7% 2023 average) and the historical mean at 1.2%.This implies a neutral nominal rate between 4.00% and 4.50%. In the past decade, the NBR real effective rate was below the neutral rate and only over the past year climbed above the neutral mark.Source: Erste Bank
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