Press release on the NBR decision regarding the intention of OTP Bank to purchase Banca Românească:
The National Bank of Romania announces that, pursuant to Government Emergency Ordinance No. 99/2006 on credit institutions and capital adequacy, approved with amendments and supplements by Law No. 227/2007, to NBR Regulation No. 6/2008 on the taking-up of business and the changes in the standing of credit institutions, Romanian legal entities, and branches in Romania of third-country credit institutions, as well as to NBR Regulation No. 11/2007 on the authorisation of credit institutions, Romanian legal entities, and branches in Romania of third-country credit institutions, it opposes the intention of OTP Bank Romania SA to purchase a direct qualifying holding (of 99.28%) and the intention of OTP Bank Nyrt. respectively to purchase an indirect qualifying holding (of 99.28%) in the share capital and voting rights of Banca Românească SA Member of National Bank of Greece Group.
The NBR reiterates that, in line with the provisions of Article 52 of Law No. 312/2004 on the Statute of the National Bank of Romania, the information obtained while exercising the central bank tasks in the field of authorisation, regulation and prudential supervision of credit institutions shall be considered as professional secrecy and shall imply compliance with the related confidentiality obligation, and any such information may be disclosed only subject to conditions expressly laid down by law.
The neutral nominal rate in Romania has been falling since the start of inflation targeting in 2005. The Taylor Rule clearly shows that interest rates peaked in 2022 and have been on a clear downward path ever since.Furthermore, the model estimates a long-term neutral nominal rate of around 3.9%, which is the equivalent of approx. 1.4% real.Using a more sophisticated model (i.e. New York FED’S HLW model), the real neutral interest rate in Romania is estimated currently at around 1.5% (1.7% 2023 average) and the historical mean at 1.2%.This implies a neutral nominal rate between 4.00% and 4.50%. In the past decade, the NBR real effective rate was below the neutral rate and only over the past year climbed above the neutral mark.Source: Erste Bank
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