IMF Press Statement:
Today, Mr. Guillermo Tolosa, IMF Regional Representative for Romania and Bulgaria has issued the following press statement:
“An IMF mission headed by Mr. Reza Baqir, will visit Bucharest, March 2-15, 2016, to undertake the annual review of the Romanian economy, also called the Article IV Consultation.
The mission will meet with the Romanian authorities, as well as with representatives of political parties, unions, business associations, academia and banks.
The mission expects to hold a press conference at the end of the visit.”
The neutral nominal rate in Romania has been falling since the start of inflation targeting in 2005. The Taylor Rule clearly shows that interest rates peaked in 2022 and have been on a clear downward path ever since.Furthermore, the model estimates a long-term neutral nominal rate of around 3.9%, which is the equivalent of approx. 1.4% real.Using a more sophisticated model (i.e. New York FED’S HLW model), the real neutral interest rate in Romania is estimated currently at around 1.5% (1.7% 2023 average) and the historical mean at 1.2%.This implies a neutral nominal rate between 4.00% and 4.50%. In the past decade, the NBR real effective rate was below the neutral rate and only over the past year climbed above the neutral mark.Source: Erste Bank
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