Today, Fitch rating agency upgraded Romania’s long term foreign currency sovereign rating to “BBB-“ (investment grade) from “BB+” previously (non-investment grade). The rating outlook was set to “stable”, informs Raiffeisen Research.rnrn”The upgrade reflects Romania’s progress in recovering from the effects of the financial crisis, evident in a return of GDP growth, a strong export performance, narrowing in the current account deficit and reduction in its budget deficit,” Fitch said.rnrnWhen changing the rating, the rating agency took into account positive developments in the economy like: the resumption of economic growth, the adjustment of domestic demand and current account deficit to more sustainable levels, the ongoing fiscal consolidation process (the government is on track to meet its deficit target this year), successful access of government to international capital markets, and the policy anchor provided by the new precautionary IMF/EU programme.rnrnThe news had a positive impact on the leu which gained around 0.6% against the euro shortly following the announcement. Given the depreciation in the last month and the recent decrease in uncertainty on the external market, we think that further gains are also possible for the leu in the coming period.
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The neutral nominal rate in Romania has been falling since the start of inflation targeting in 2005. The Taylor Rule clearly shows that interest rates peaked in 2022 and have been on a clear downward path ever since.Furthermore, the model estimates a long-term neutral nominal rate of around 3.9%, which is the equivalent of approx. 1.4% real.Using a more sophisticated model (i.e. New York FED’S HLW model), the real neutral interest rate in Romania is estimated currently at around 1.5% (1.7% 2023 average) and the historical mean at 1.2%.This implies a neutral nominal rate between 4.00% and 4.50%. In the past decade, the NBR real effective rate was below the neutral rate and only over the past year climbed above the neutral mark.Source: Erste Bank
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NBR Board decisions on monetary policyIn its meeting of 4 April 2023, the Board of the National Bank of Romania decided:• to keep the monetary policy rate at 7.00 percent per annum;• to leave unchanged the lending (Lombard) facility rate at 8.00 percent per annum and the deposit facility rate at 6.00 percent per annum;• to keep the existing levels of minimum reserve requirement ratios on both leu- and foreign currency-denominated liabilities of credit institutions.The annual inflation rate went down to 15.52 percent in February 2023, from 16.37 percent in December 2022, relatively in line with forecasts. The decrease was mainly driven by the sizeable drop in the dynamics of fuel and electricity prices, under the impact of significant base effects and the change made to the energy price capping and compensation scheme starting 1... detalii
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