Erste Group Bank AG („Erste Group”) successfully opened the 2012 market for Austrian issuers with a 10-year EUR 1.0 bn mortgage covered bond (Austrian Hypothekenpfandbrief), said the bank in a press release.rnrnThe issue due February 2022 carries a coupon of 3.50% and was priced at a re-offer price of 99.635 % and a yield of 3.544%. Good demand from investors in Germany (56%), Austria (24%) and other 14 countries triggered a double over-subscription of EUR 2.0 bn and allowed to price the offering at mid-swaps + 130 bps. The distribution by investor type was well diversified, comprising funds (45%), banks (22%), central banks (17%) and insurance (15%).rnrnErste Group’s mortgage cover pool, amounting to EUR 7.7 bn, has continuously expanded since 2007 and is rated Aaa by Moody’s. 94% of the cover pool assets are originated in Austria.rnrn„Due to its solid business model, Erste benefits from an excellent funding mix and its liquidity base is one of the most comfortable among European banks. The current Pfandbrief issue is part of our strategy to continue to extend the maturity profile of our funding. Our long-term funding needs are limited and for 2012 we are confident we can cover them with our cover pool,“ stated Franz Hochstrasser, Deputy CEO of Erste Group. rnrnErste Group executed three successful benchmark issues in 2011 – two Pfandbrief bonds and one senior unsecured bond – amounting to a total of EUR 2.5 bn. The group’s funding mix consists of primarily customer deposits (current loan/deposit ratio 111.2%), short-term funding covered by collateral (132.8%) and long-term funding ensured by covered bonds and senior unsecured bonds.
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The neutral nominal rate in Romania has been falling since the start of inflation targeting in 2005. The Taylor Rule clearly shows that interest rates peaked in 2022 and have been on a clear downward path ever since.Furthermore, the model estimates a long-term neutral nominal rate of around 3.9%, which is the equivalent of approx. 1.4% real.Using a more sophisticated model (i.e. New York FED’S HLW model), the real neutral interest rate in Romania is estimated currently at around 1.5% (1.7% 2023 average) and the historical mean at 1.2%.This implies a neutral nominal rate between 4.00% and 4.50%. In the past decade, the NBR real effective rate was below the neutral rate and only over the past year climbed above the neutral mark.Source: Erste Bank
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