Erste Group expects to post net profit of approx. EUR 560 million in Q2 16, raises guidance for 2016 to ROTE >12% (up from 10-11%) – press release –
Erste Group announces that it expects to report Q2 16 net profit of about EUR 560 million, resulting in H1 16 net profit of about EUR 830 million. Q2 16 performance was primarily driven by releases of risk provisions in the amount of about EUR 30 million (mainly due to releases in Hungary and Romania and declining risk costs in all other geographies), the P&L recognition of the VISA sale one-off in the pre-tax amount of about EUR 139 million, and significantly improved operating as well as other operating results vs Q1 16.
In line with this year-to-date performance, Erste Group revises upward its outlook for 2016 net profit to ROTE>12% (from 10-11% previously). This guidance includes a buffer for a potential banking tax one-off payment in Austria in 2016 (pending parliamentary approval of the government proposal), which is a pre-requisite for a banking tax reduction of about EUR 110 million pre-tax per annum from 2017, and assumes no material negative one-offs in H2 16.
A full business update will be provided with publication of half-year 2016 results on 5 August 2016.
The neutral nominal rate in Romania has been falling since the start of inflation targeting in 2005. The Taylor Rule clearly shows that interest rates peaked in 2022 and have been on a clear downward path ever since.Furthermore, the model estimates a long-term neutral nominal rate of around 3.9%, which is the equivalent of approx. 1.4% real.Using a more sophisticated model (i.e. New York FED’S HLW model), the real neutral interest rate in Romania is estimated currently at around 1.5% (1.7% 2023 average) and the historical mean at 1.2%.This implies a neutral nominal rate between 4.00% and 4.50%. In the past decade, the NBR real effective rate was below the neutral rate and only over the past year climbed above the neutral mark.Source: Erste Bank
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