The EBRD’s Board of Directors has adopted a new three-year strategy for Romania, which outlines the Bank’s key priorities for supporting the country’s further transition. (See the attached document)rnrnThe strategy notes that despite signs of modest economic recovery in 2011, based on a strong harvest and exports, the short-term macroeconomic outlook for Romania remains uncertain in light of the renewed turmoil in the eurozone and global markets. The document stresses that the country has a strong long-term growth potential, which can be realised by addressing the remaining transition challenges.rnrnThrough its activity in Romania in the coming years, the EBRD will develop projects that will assist Romania in maintaining stability in the financial sector, facilitate the flow of credit to the real economy sector through dedicated credit lines for small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) and energy efficiency investments and contribute to the development of local capital markets.rnrnSupporting the growth of the enterprise sector in Romania is one of the Bank’s priorities in the new strategy. The EBRD will encourage foreign direct investment into Romania’s corporate sector and will support local businesses, both through direct investment and via private equity funds, focusing particularly on value-added sectors such as manufacturing, agribusiness and technology.rnrnThe EBRD will aim to expand its activities in the municipal infrastructure sector, enhancing commercialisation, competition and private sector involvement in both transport and municipal public services. In doing so, the Bank will work closely with the Romanian authorities to seek co-financing opportunities with European Union structural funds.rnrnIn the energy and infrastructure sectors the Bank’s operations will focus on enhancing Romania’s energy security and will assist with the privatisation of state-owned companies. The EBRD will also promote Romania’s transition to a low-carbon economy through investments in renewable energy.rnrn“The EBRD will continue to support the country in implementing remaining reforms, through investment and policy dialogue with the Romanian government. The EBRD expects to continue to invest in Romania around €400-€500 million annually over the next three years, with the overall objective to help Romania’s economy develop further,” said Jean Marc Peterschmitt, EBRD Managing Director for Central and South Eastern Europe.rnrnSince the beginning of its operations in Romania, the EBRD has committed over €5.5 billion to various sectors of the country’s economy, mobilising additional investment of close to €10 billion.
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The neutral nominal rate in Romania has been falling since the start of inflation targeting in 2005. The Taylor Rule clearly shows that interest rates peaked in 2022 and have been on a clear downward path ever since.Furthermore, the model estimates a long-term neutral nominal rate of around 3.9%, which is the equivalent of approx. 1.4% real.Using a more sophisticated model (i.e. New York FED’S HLW model), the real neutral interest rate in Romania is estimated currently at around 1.5% (1.7% 2023 average) and the historical mean at 1.2%.This implies a neutral nominal rate between 4.00% and 4.50%. In the past decade, the NBR real effective rate was below the neutral rate and only over the past year climbed above the neutral mark.Source: Erste Bank
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