Elections are being held today for chairman of the Bucharest Stock Exchange (BVB), with three candidates vying for the position, Mediafax reports. They are Lucian Anghel (foto), chief economist at BCR, Dan Paul, president of the Brokers’ Association, and Stere Farmache, the incumbent chairman, who’s been on the job for the past 16 years. Lucian Anghel is credited as the frontrunner in the race, given he managed to rally 50 pc of the votes, people familiar with the capital market say. rnrnLucian Anghel has been working with BCR since 1997 and is now chief economist and executive director of the strategy and development division with the bank. “Farmache and Dan Paul are jostling for 25 pc of the votes. The remainder, about 20 pc, are retail, small shareholders holding 10-20 pc of the shares, which are most likely to not even attend the general meeting of shareholders”, the sources said.rnrn Farmache’s supporters include some brokerage firms. The current BVB chairman also has the vote of Greek banks, Alpha Bank and EFG Securities, at least. Stere Farmache has been first vice-president of Alpha bank Romania since 2009. The investment funds and other investors amassed some major stakes in BVB. Brokers say the bulk of those funds are endorsing Anghel.
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The neutral nominal rate in Romania has been falling since the start of inflation targeting in 2005. The Taylor Rule clearly shows that interest rates peaked in 2022 and have been on a clear downward path ever since.Furthermore, the model estimates a long-term neutral nominal rate of around 3.9%, which is the equivalent of approx. 1.4% real.Using a more sophisticated model (i.e. New York FED’S HLW model), the real neutral interest rate in Romania is estimated currently at around 1.5% (1.7% 2023 average) and the historical mean at 1.2%.This implies a neutral nominal rate between 4.00% and 4.50%. In the past decade, the NBR real effective rate was below the neutral rate and only over the past year climbed above the neutral mark.Source: Erste Bank
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