July brought again the optimism among investors on the Bucharest Stock Exchange (BVB). BET, BVB’s main index, rose to a 7 years top level, the trading value on the equities market (without public offerings) reached the highest level of the last 12 months, and the market capitalization of all companies listed on BVB set a new all time record, of RON 154.2bn (almost EUR 35bn).
After a slight decrease in June, BET rose in July by 4.18%, one of the best monthly performance among those registered by the main indexes in the region: Hungary (+3.13%), Austria (+3.63%), Bulgaria (-2.39%) and Poland (-3.9%).
The dynamics from July 2015 took the BET index at its highest level of the past 7 years, since June 2008. BET ended July 2015 up by 7.34% compared to the level registered at the end of 2014.
BET Total Return (BET-TR) index rose by 5.89% in July, thus at the end of the month it was 12% higher than the level registered at the end of 2014. The BET-TR index reflects the performance of the top 10 most liquid companies listed on BVB, included also in BET index, as well the dividends these companies distribute to shareholders.
Investors traded in July shares worth RON 913.5mn (EUR 205.7mn) on the Main Market, this being the highest level reached in the past 12 months. The level from July 2015 is only by 1.4% lower than the one registered in July 2014, when Electrica (EL) debuted on the stock market, after the largest IPO ever undertook by a Romanian company.
The value of trades with shares carried out by investors in July 2015 is also by 20.3% higher than the one registered in June 2015.
At the same time, July 2015 reconfirmed the tendency registered since the beginning of the year with regard to a greater relevance of the Regular market as the main market for shares (84.8% in July vs. 76.98% in June on order-book), in comparison with the Deal market, in the total trading value with shares.
The trading value carried out on all the Main Market’s segments went up by 17.6%, up to RON 986.8mn (EUR 222.2mn). This value includes the trades with shares, bonds, fund units, ETF and structured products, without public offers.
The significant evolution registered in July drove the market capitalization to a new all-time high, of RON 154.2mn (almost EUR 35bn), level by 5.87% higher compared to the one at the end of June and, at the same time, by 18.6% over the value from the end of 2014.
The market capitalization of all Romanian listed companies was RON 86.1bn (EUR 19.5bn) at the end of July, 4.5% higher than the end of 2014.
The neutral nominal rate in Romania has been falling since the start of inflation targeting in 2005. The Taylor Rule clearly shows that interest rates peaked in 2022 and have been on a clear downward path ever since.Furthermore, the model estimates a long-term neutral nominal rate of around 3.9%, which is the equivalent of approx. 1.4% real.Using a more sophisticated model (i.e. New York FED’S HLW model), the real neutral interest rate in Romania is estimated currently at around 1.5% (1.7% 2023 average) and the historical mean at 1.2%.This implies a neutral nominal rate between 4.00% and 4.50%. In the past decade, the NBR real effective rate was below the neutral rate and only over the past year climbed above the neutral mark.Source: Erste Bank
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