Working Paper No. 12/238: Banking and Trading Author/Editor: Ratnovski, Lev Summary: We study the effects of a bank’s engagement in trading. Traditional banking is relationship-based: not scalable, long-term oriented, with high implicit capital, and low risk (thanks to the law of large numbers). Trading is transactions-based: scalable, shortterm, capital constrained, and with the ability to generate risk from concentrated positions. When a bank engages in trading, it can use its ‘spare’ capital to profitablity expand the scale of trading. However, there are two inefficiencies. A bank may allocate too much capital to trading ex-post, compromising the incentives to build relationships ex-ante. And a bank may use trading for risk-shifting. Financial development augments the scalability of trading, which initially benefits conglomeration, but beyond some point inefficiencies dominate. The deepending of the financial markets in recent decades leads trading in banks to become increasingly risky, so that problems in managing and regulating trading in banks will persist for the foreseeable future. The analysis has implications for capital regulation, subsidiarization, and scope and scale restrictions in banking.rnrnThe studyrn
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The neutral nominal rate in Romania has been falling since the start of inflation targeting in 2005. The Taylor Rule clearly shows that interest rates peaked in 2022 and have been on a clear downward path ever since.Furthermore, the model estimates a long-term neutral nominal rate of around 3.9%, which is the equivalent of approx. 1.4% real.Using a more sophisticated model (i.e. New York FED’S HLW model), the real neutral interest rate in Romania is estimated currently at around 1.5% (1.7% 2023 average) and the historical mean at 1.2%.This implies a neutral nominal rate between 4.00% and 4.50%. In the past decade, the NBR real effective rate was below the neutral rate and only over the past year climbed above the neutral mark.Source: Erste Bank
Press Release:"Alpha Services and Holdings announces a strategic partnership with UniCredit in RomaniaMerger of Alpha Bank Romania and UniCredit Bank Romania and creation of third largest bank in Romania by... detalii
NBR Board decisions on monetary policyIn its meeting of 4 April 2023, the Board of the National Bank of Romania decided:• to keep the monetary policy rate at 7.00 percent per annum;• to leave unchanged the lending (Lombard) facility rate at 8.00 percent per annum and the deposit facility rate at 6.00 percent per annum;• to keep the existing levels of minimum reserve requirement ratios on both leu- and foreign currency-denominated liabilities of credit institutions.The annual inflation rate went down to 15.52 percent in February 2023, from 16.37 percent in December 2022, relatively in line with forecasts. The decrease was mainly driven by the sizeable drop in the dynamics of fuel and electricity prices, under the impact of significant base effects and the change made to the energy price capping and compensation scheme starting 1... detalii
ING press release:ING posts FY2022 net result of €3,674 million,proposed final 2022 dividend of €0.389 per share 4Q2022 profit before tax of €1,711 million; CET1 ratio remains strong at 14.5%•Profit before tax up 29% on 4Q2021 and 24% on 3Q2022, mainly driven by higher income•Higher net interest income, as a further increase in liability margins helped offset TLTRO impact this quarter•Risk costs declined to 17 bps of average customer lending Full-year 2022 net result of €3,674 million, supported by growing customer base and increase in lending and deposits•On a full-year basis, our primary customer base grew by 585,000•Net core lending growth of €18 billion and net core deposits growth of €25 billion in 2022•Net result of €3,674 million in a challenging year; proposed final 2022 dividend of €0.389 per share CEO statement“Looking back, 2022 was... detalii