At end-June 2011, broad money (M3) amounted to RON 199,911.9 million, up 0.8 percent (1.1 percent in real terms) month on month. In year-on-year comparison, broad money rose 2.5 percent (down 5.1 percent in real terms), said the NBR in a press release.rnrnAt end-June 2011, non-government loans granted by credit institutions went up 2.9 percent (3.2 percent in real terms) from May 2011 to RON 213,651.2 million. RON-denominated loans increased by 1.0 percent (1.3 percent in real terms), whereas foreign currency-denominated loans rose by 4.0 percent when expressed in RON and by 1.2 percent when expressed in EUR. At end-June 2011, non-government loans climbed year on year by 1.3 percent (down 6.1 percent in real terms), on the back of the 0.9 percent increase in RON-denominated loans (down 6.5 percent in real terms) and the 1.6 percent advance in foreign currency-denominated loans expressed in RON (when expressed in EUR, forex loans expanded by 4.8 percent).rnrnRON-denominated household deposits added 0.9 percent to RON 66,635.7 million. At end-June 2011, household deposits in domestic currency jumped 7.3 percent (down 0.6 percent in real terms) against the same year-ago period.rnrnRON-denominated corporate deposits (non-financial corporations and non-monetary financial institutions) increased by 1.1 percent to RON 47,296.2 million. At end-June 2011, RON-denominated corporate deposits rose year on year by 9.0 percent (1.0 percent in real terms).rnrnForex-denominated deposits of resident households and corporates (non-financial corporations and non-monetary financial institutions) edged up 0.2 percent to RON 60,379.2 million when expressed in domestic currency (when expressed in EUR, forex deposits decreased by 2.5 percent to EUR 14,260.2 million). In year-on-year comparison, residents’ forex deposits expressed in RON declined by 6.5 percent (when expressed in EUR, residents’ forex deposits decreased by 3.5 percent); household deposits in foreign currency went down 1.8 percent when expressed in domestic currency (when expressed in EUR, household forex deposits stood 1.3 percent higher) and forex deposits of corporates (non-financial corporations and non-monetary financial institutions) dropped 14.3 percent when expressed in RON (when expressed in EUR, forex deposits of resident corporates shrank 11.6 percent).
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The neutral nominal rate in Romania has been falling since the start of inflation targeting in 2005. The Taylor Rule clearly shows that interest rates peaked in 2022 and have been on a clear downward path ever since.Furthermore, the model estimates a long-term neutral nominal rate of around 3.9%, which is the equivalent of approx. 1.4% real.Using a more sophisticated model (i.e. New York FED’S HLW model), the real neutral interest rate in Romania is estimated currently at around 1.5% (1.7% 2023 average) and the historical mean at 1.2%.This implies a neutral nominal rate between 4.00% and 4.50%. In the past decade, the NBR real effective rate was below the neutral rate and only over the past year climbed above the neutral mark.Source: Erste Bank
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