PRESS RELEASE FOR Q3 2016 FINANCIAL RESULTS
BANCA COMERCIALA CARPATICA
For the first 9 months of 2016 (Q316) the bank reached the budgeted target in terms of total operating revenue (+1%), despite the fact that the value of the operating revenues is with -14% below the level of the same period of 2015 (75.8M RON, compared with 88.4M RON in 2015)
The net reported loss for the first 9 months of 2016 (37.3M RON) is with 10.7M RON less than the budgeted loss for this period, mainly due to the registration of some loans provisions, lower than the budget level (8.3M RON), respectively, to some write-offs recoveries bigger with 3.1M RON compared with the budgeted level.
Compared with the same period of the previous year, the bank lost 14% of the operating revenues (net revenue form banking activities), this loss being offset almost entirely by the reduction of the operational expenses with 11%.
The reductions of the recurrent operational expenses are in line with the forecasted expenses from the incomes and
expenses budget (economy of -3% compared with the budget) and in the context of annualised terms it represents a reduction with -13% compared with the same period of the previous year.
The net loss for the first 9 months of 2016 is with 10.8M RON bigger than the loss registered in the same period of the previous year, mainly as a consequence of the booked provisions, three times bigger compared with the same period of 2015, during the process of cleaning-up the balance-sheet by non-performing loans.
Solvability – capital adequacy ratio of 12.6%, grew up from 4.9% at 31 December 2015; the solvability’s return over the minimum regulated level is a consequence of the
increased capital from February 2016.
The neutral nominal rate in Romania has been falling since the start of inflation targeting in 2005. The Taylor Rule clearly shows that interest rates peaked in 2022 and have been on a clear downward path ever since.Furthermore, the model estimates a long-term neutral nominal rate of around 3.9%, which is the equivalent of approx. 1.4% real.Using a more sophisticated model (i.e. New York FED’S HLW model), the real neutral interest rate in Romania is estimated currently at around 1.5% (1.7% 2023 average) and the historical mean at 1.2%.This implies a neutral nominal rate between 4.00% and 4.50%. In the past decade, the NBR real effective rate was below the neutral rate and only over the past year climbed above the neutral mark.Source: Erste Bank
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