Romanian balance of payments and external debt – September 2015 (National Bank of Romania statement):
In January – September 2015, the balance-of-payments current account posted a deficit of EUR 653 million as compared with EUR 1,168 million in the same year-ago period, amid the widening of the secondary income and services surpluses (by EUR 713 million and EUR 478 million, respectively), together with the narrowing of the primary income deficit (by EUR 335 million).
Non-residents’ direct investment in Romania (estimates) totalled EUR 2,514 million, of which equity (including estimated net reinvestment of earnings) amounted to EUR 2,150 million and intercompany lending to EUR 364 million (net).
Long-term external debt at end-September 2015 stood at EUR 69,566 million (77.9 percent of total external debt), down 8.3 percent from end-2014.
Short-term external debt at end-September 2015 amounted to EUR 19,695 million (22.1 percent of total external debt), up 4.1 percent from end-2014.
In the period under review, total external debt declined by EUR 5,483 million.
Long-term external debt service ratio ran at 36.3 percent in January-September 2015 against 38.6 percent in 2014. At end-September 2015, goods and services import cover stood at 6 months, as compared with 6.8 months at end-2014.
Source: BNR statement
The neutral nominal rate in Romania has been falling since the start of inflation targeting in 2005. The Taylor Rule clearly shows that interest rates peaked in 2022 and have been on a clear downward path ever since.Furthermore, the model estimates a long-term neutral nominal rate of around 3.9%, which is the equivalent of approx. 1.4% real.Using a more sophisticated model (i.e. New York FED’S HLW model), the real neutral interest rate in Romania is estimated currently at around 1.5% (1.7% 2023 average) and the historical mean at 1.2%.This implies a neutral nominal rate between 4.00% and 4.50%. In the past decade, the NBR real effective rate was below the neutral rate and only over the past year climbed above the neutral mark.Source: Erste Bank
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